CMP Associates Regulation Blog: Capital Flows, Exchange Rates and Unconventional Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Risks, Recovery without Hiring, Cyclical Slow Growth not Secular Stagnation, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, World Financial Turbulence, World Economic Slowdown and Global Recession Risk: Part VI

Capital Flows, Exchange Rates and Unconventional Monetary Policy, Interest Rate Risks, Recovery without Hiring, Cyclical Slow Growth not Secular Stagnation, Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation, World Financial Turbulence, World Economic Slowdown and Global Recession Risk

Carlos M. Pelaez

Executive Summary

I Recovery without Hiring

IA1 Hiring Collapse

IA2 Labor Underutilization

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs

IA4 Theory and Reality of Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment

IB Collapse of United States Dynamism of Income Growth and Employment Creation

IIB United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

IIA1 Transmission of Monetary Policy

IIB1 Functions of Banks

IIC United States Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities

IID Theory and Reality of Economic History, Cyclical Slow Growth Not Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy Based on Fear of Deflation

III World Financial Turbulence

IIIA Financial Risks

IIIE Appendix Euro Zone Survival Risk

IIIF Appendix on Sovereign Bond Valuation

IV Global Inflation

V World Economic Slowdown

VA United States

VB Japan

VC China

VD Euro Area

VE Germany

VF France

VG Italy

VH United Kingdom

VI Valuation of Risk Financial Assets

VII Economic Indicators

VIII Interest Rates

IX Conclusion

References

Appendixes

Appendix I The Great Inflation

IIIB Appendix on Safe Haven Currencies

IIIC Appendix on Fiscal Compact

IIID Appendix on European Central Bank Large Scale Lender of Last Resort

IIIG Appendix on Deficit Financing of Growth and the Debt Crisis

IIIGA Monetary Policy with Deficit Financing of Economic Growth

IIIGB Adjustment during the Debt Crisis of the 1980s

IX Conclusion. Lucas (2011May) estimates US economic growth in the long-term at 3 percent per year and about 2 percent per year in per capita terms. There are displacements from this trend caused by events such as wars and recessions but the economy then returns to trend. Historical US GDP data exhibit remarkable growth: Lucas (2011May) estimates an increase of US real income per person by a factor of 12 in the period from 1870 to 2010. The explanation by Lucas (2011May) of this remarkable growth experience is that government provided stability and education while elements of “free-market capitalism” were an important driver of long-term growth and prosperity. Lucas sharpens this analysis by comparison with the long-term growth experience of G7 countries (US, UK, France, Germany, Canada, Italy and Japan) and Spain from 1870 to 2010. Countries benefitted from “common civilization” and “technology” to “catch up” with the early growth leaders of the US and UK, eventually growing at a faster rate. Significant part of this catch up occurred after World War II. Lucas (2011May) finds that the catch up stalled in the 1970s. The analysis of Lucas (2011May) is that the 20-40 percent gap that developed originated in differences in relative taxation and regulation that discouraged savings and work incentives in comparison with the US. A larger welfare and regulatory state, according to Lucas (2011May), could be the cause of the 20-40 percent gap. Cobet and Wilson (2002) provide estimates of output per hour and unit labor costs in national currency and US dollars for the US, Japan and Germany from 1950 to 2000 (see Pelaez and Pelaez, The Global Recession Risk (2007), 137-44). The average yearly rate of productivity change from 1950 to 2000 was 2.9 percent in the US, 6.3 percent for Japan and 4.7 percent for Germany while unit labor costs in USD increased at 2.6 percent in the US, 4.7 percent in Japan and 4.3 percent in Germany. From 1995 to 2000, output per hour increased at the average yearly rate of 4.6 percent in the US, 3.9 percent in Japan and 2.6 percent in Germany while unit labor costs in USD fell at minus 0.7 percent in the US, 4.3 percent in Japan and 7.5 percent in Germany. There was increase in productivity growth in Japan and France within the G7 in the second half of the 1990s but significantly lower than the acceleration of 1.3 percentage points per year in the US. The key indicator of growth of real income per capita or what is earned per person after inflation, measures long-term economic growth and prosperity. A refined concept would include real disposable income per capita, which is what a person earns after inflation and taxes.

Table IX-1 provides the data required for broader comparison of long-term and cyclical performance of the United States economy. Revisions and enhancements of United States GDP and personal income accounts by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) provide important information on long-term growth and cyclical behavior. First, Long-term performance. Using annual data, US GDP grew at the average rate of 3.3 percent per year from 1929 to 2012 and at 3.2 percent per year from 1947 to 2012. Real disposable income grew at the average yearly rate of 3.2 percent from 1929 to 2012 and at 3.7 percent from 1947 to 1999. Real disposable income per capita grew at the average yearly rate of 2.0 percent from 1929 to 2012 and at 2.3 percent from 1947 to 1999. US economic growth was much faster during expansions, compensating contractions in maintaining trend growth for whole cycles. Using annual data, US real disposable income grew at the average yearly rate of 3.5 percent from 1980 to 1989 and real disposable income per capita at 2.6 percent. The US economy has lost its dynamism in the current cycle: real disposable income grew at the yearly average rate of 1.4 percent from 2006 to 2012 and real disposable income per capita at 0.6 percent. Table IX-1 illustrates the contradiction of long-term growth with the proposition of secular stagnation (Hansen 1938, 1938, 1941 with early critique by Simons (1942). Secular stagnation would occur over long periods. Table IX-1 also provides the corresponding rates of population growth that is only marginally lower at 0.8 to 0.9 percent recently from 1.1 percent over the long-term. GDP growth fell abruptly from 2.6 percent on average from 2000 to 2006 to 0.9 percent from 2006 to 2012 and real disposable income growth fell from 2.9 percent from 2000 to 2006 to 1.4 percent from 2006 to 2012. The decline of real per capita disposable income is even sharper from average 2.0 percent from 2000 to 2006 to 0.6 percent from 2006 to 2012 while population growth was 0.8 percent on average. Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul122) provide theory and measurements showing that cyclic factors explain currently depressed labor markets. This is also the case of the overall economy. Second, first four quarters of expansion. Growth in the first four quarters of expansion is critical in recovering loss of output and employment occurring during the contraction. In the first four quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1983: GDP increased 7.8 percent, real disposable personal income 5.3 percent and real disposable income per capita 4.4 percent. In the first four quarters of expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010: GDP increased 2.7 percent, real disposable personal income 0.3 percent and real disposable income per capita decreased 0.5 percent. Third, first 17 quarters of expansion. In the expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987: GDP grew 23.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 5.0 percent; real disposable income grew 19.5 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 4.3 percent; and real disposable income per capita grew 15.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 3.4 percent. In the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013: GDP grew 10.3 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 2.3 percent; real disposable income grew 6.3 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.4 percent; and real disposable personal income per capita grew 2.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.7 percent. Fourth, entire quarterly cycle. In the entire cycle combining contraction and expansion from IQ1980 to IQ1987: GDP grew 22.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 2.8 percent; real disposable personal income 26.4 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 3.2 percent; and real disposable personal income per capita 18.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 2.2 percent. In the entire cycle combining contraction and expansion from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013: GDP grew 5.6 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.9 percent; real disposable personal income 7.9 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 1.3 percent; and real disposable personal income per capita 3.1 percent at the annual equivalent rate of 0.5 percent. The United States grew during its history at high rates of per capita income that made its economy the largest in the world. That dynamism is disappearing. Bordo (2012 Sep27) and Bordo and Haubrich (2012DR) provide strong evidence that recoveries have been faster after deeper recessions and recessions with financial crises, casting serious doubts on the conventional explanation of weak growth during the current expansion allegedly because of the depth of the contraction of 4.3 percent from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 and the financial crisis. The proposition of secular stagnation should explain a long-term process of decay and not the actual abrupt collapse of the economy and labor markets currently.

Table IX-1, US, GDP, Real Disposable Personal Income, Real Disposable Income per Capita and Population in 1983-85 and 2007-2013, %

Long-term Average ∆% per Year	GDP	Population
1929-2012	3.3	1.1
1947-2012	3.2	1.2
1947-1999	3.6	1.3
2000-2012	1.7	0.9
2000-2006	2.6	0.9
2006-2012	0.9	0.8
Long-term Average ∆% per Year	Real Disposable Income	Real Disposable Income per Capita	Population
1929-2012	3.2	2.0	1.1
1947-1999	3.7	2.3	1.3
2000-2012	2.2	1.3	0.9
2000-2006	2.9	2.0	0.9
Whole Cycles Average ∆% per Year
1980-1989	3.5	2.6	0.9
2006-2012	1.4	0.6	0.8
Comparison of Cycles	# Quarters	∆%	∆% Annual Equivalent
GDP
I83 to IV83 IQ83 to IQ87	4 17
I83 to IV83 I83 to IQ87	4 17	7.8 23.1	7.8 5.0
RDPI
I83 to IV83 I83 to I87	4 17	5.3 19.5	5.3 4.3
RDPI Per Capita
I83 to IV83 I83 to I87	4 17	4.4 15.1	4.4 3.4
Whole Cycle IQ1980 to IQ1987
GDP	30	22.9	2.8
RDPI	30	26.4	3.2
RDPI per Capita	30	18.1	2.2
Population	30	7.0	0.9
GDP
III09 to II10 III09 to III13	4 17	2.7 10.3	2.7 2.3
RDPI
III09 to II10 III09 to III13	4 17	0.3 6.3	0.3 1.4
RDPI per Capita
III09 to II10 II09 to IIIQ13	4 17	-0.5 2.9	-0.5 0.7
Population
II09 to II010 II09 to III13	4 17	0.9 3.2	0.8 0.8
IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	23
GDP	24	5.6	0.9
RDPI	24	7.9	1.3
RDPI per Capita	24	3.1	0.5
Population	24	4.6	0.8

RDPI: Real Disposable Personal Income

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

There are seven basic facts illustrating the current economic disaster of the United States:

GDP maintained trend growth in the entire business cycle from IQ1980 to IQ1987, including contractions and expansions. GDP is well below trend in the entire business cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013, including contractions and expansions
Per capita real disposable income exceeded trend growth in the 1980s but is substantially below trend in IIIQ2013
Level of employed persons increased in the 1980s but declined into IIIQ2013
Level of full-time employed persons increased in the 1980s but declined into IIIQ2013
Level unemployed, unemployment rate and employed part-time for economic reasons fell in the recovery from the recessions in the 1980s but not substantially in the recovery since IIIQ2009
Wealth of households and nonprofit organizations soared in the 1980s but stagnated in real terms into IIIQ2013
Gross private domestic investment increased sharply from IQ1980 to IQ1987 but gross private domestic investment stagnated and private fixed investment fell from IVQ2007 into IIIQ2013

There is a critical issue of the United States economy will be able in the future to attain again the level of activity and prosperity of projected trend growth. Growth at trend during the entire business cycles built the largest economy in the world but there may be an adverse, permanent weakness in United States economic performance and prosperity. Table IX-2 provides data for analysis of these seven basic facts. The seven blocks of Table IX-2 are separated initially after individual discussion of each one followed by the full Table IX-2.

1. Trend Growth.

i. As shown in Table IX-2, actual GDP grew cumulatively 22.5 percent from IQ1980 to IQ1987, which is relatively close to what trend growth would have been at 24.8 percent. Real GDP grew 22.9 percent from IVQ1979 to IQ1987. Rapid growth at the average annual rate of 5.0 percent per quarter during the expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987 erased the loss of GDP of 4.6 percent during the contraction and maintained trend growth at 2.8 percent for GDP and 3.2 percent for real disposable personal income over the entire cycle.

ii. In contrast, cumulative growth from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013 was 5.6 percent while trend growth would have been 19.4 percent. GDP in IIIQ2013 at seasonally adjusted annual rate is $15,839.3 billion as estimated by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and would have been $17,905.3 billion, or $2066.0 billion higher, had the economy grown at trend over the entire business cycle as it happened during the 1980s and throughout most of US history. There is $2.1 trillion of foregone GDP that the economy would have created as it occurred during past cyclical expansions, which explains why employment net of population growth has not rebounded to even higher than before. There would not be recovery of full employment even with growth of 3 percent per year beginning immediately because the opportunity was lost to grow faster during the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013 after the recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. The United States has acquired a heavy social burden of unemployment and underemployment of 29.3 million people or 18.0 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html) that will not be significantly diminished even with return to growth of GDP of 3 percent per year because of growth of the labor force by new entrants. The US labor force grew from 142.583 million in 2000 to 153.124 million in 2007 or by 7.4 percent at the average yearly rate of 1.0 percent per year. The civilian noninstitutional population or those able to work, increased from 212.577 million in 2000 to 231.867 million in 2007 or 9.1 percent at the average yearly rate of 1.2 percent per year (data from http://www.bls.gov/data/). Data for the past five years cloud accuracy because of the number of people discouraged from seeking employment. The noninstitutional population of the United States increased from 231.867 million in 2007 to 243.284 million in 2012 or by 4.9 percent. In the same period, the labor force increased from 153.124 million in 2007 to 154.975 million in 2012 or by 1.2 percent and only by 0.9 percent to 153.617 million in 2011 while population increased 3.3 percent from 231.867 million in 2007 to 239.618 million in 2011 (data from http://www.bls.gov/data/). People ceased to seek jobs because they do not believe that there is a job available for them (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html). Structural change in demography occurs over relatively long periods and not suddenly as shown by Edward P. Lazear and James R. Spletzer (2012JHJul22). There is an abrupt cyclical event and no evidence for secular stagnation and similar propositions.

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987
GDP SAAR USD Billions
IQ1980	6,517.9
IQ1987	7,986.4
∆% IQ1980 to IQ1987 (22.9 percent from IVQ1979 $6496.8 billion)	22.5
∆% Trend Growth IQ1980 to IQ1987	24.8

Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013
GDP SAAR USD Billions
IVQ2007	14,996.1
IIIQ2013	15,839.3
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013 Actual	5.6
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013 Trend	19.4

2. Stagnating Per Capita Real Disposable Income

i. In the entire business cycle from IQ1980 to IQ1987, as shown in Table IX-2, trend growth of per capita real disposable income, or what is left per person after inflation and taxes, grew cumulatively 18.0 percent, which is close to what would have been trend growth of 16.0 percent.

ii. In contrast, in the entire business cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013, per capita real disposable income increased 3.1 percent while trend growth would have been 12.6 percent. Income available after inflation and taxes is about the same or lower as before the contraction after 17 consecutive quarters of GDP growth at mediocre rates relative to those prevailing during historical cyclical expansions. In IIQ2013, personal income grew at the SAAR of 4.7 percent after falling at 4.1 percent in IQ2013. In IIQ2013, real personal income excluding current transfer receipts grew at 5.6 percent after falling at 7.2 percent in IQ2013. In IIQ2013, real disposable personal income grew at 4.1 percent after falling at minus 7.9 percent in IQ2013 percent (Table 6 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1113.pdf). The BEA explains as follows (page 3 at http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi0313.pdf):

“The February and January changes in disposable personal income (DPI) mainly reflected the effect of special factors in January, such as the expiration of the “payroll tax holiday” and the acceleration of bonuses and personal dividends to November and to December in anticipation of changes in individual tax rates.”

Nominal personal income grew at 4.0 percent in IIIQ2013 and real personal income excluding current transfer receipts at 2.0 percent while real disposable income grew at 3.0 percent (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/pi/2013/pdf/pi1113.pdf).

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987

Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IQ1980 Chained 2009 USD	20,242
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IQ1987 Chained 2009 USD	23,891
∆% IQ1980 to IQ1987 (18.1 percent from IVQ1982 $20,230)	18.0
∆% Trend Growth	16.0

Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013

Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IVQ2007 Chained 2009 USD	35,823
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IIIQ2013 Chained 2009 USD	36,943
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	3.1
∆% Trend Growth	12.6

3. Number of Employed Persons

i. As shown in Table IX-2, the number of employed persons increased over the entire business cycle from 98.527 million not seasonally adjusted (NSA) in IQ1980 to 110.229 million NSA in IQ1987 or by 11.9 percent.

ii. In contrast, during the entire business cycle the number employed fell from 146.334 million in IVQ2007 to 144,651 million in IIIQ2013 or by 1.2 percent. There are 29.3 million persons unemployed or underemployed, which is 18.0 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html).

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987

Employed Millions IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	98.527
Employed Millions IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	110.229
∆% Employed IQ1980 to IQ1987	11.9

Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013

Employed Millions IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	146.334
Employed Millions IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	144.651
∆% Employed IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	-1.2

4. Number of Full-Time Employed Persons

i. As shown in Table IX-2, during the entire business cycle in the 1980s, including contractions and expansion, the number of employed full-time rose from 81.280 million NSA in IQ1980 to 90.270 million NSA in IQ1987 or 11.1 percent.

ii. In contrast, during the entire current business cycle, including contraction and expansion, the number of persons employed full-time fell from 121.042 million in IVQ2007 to 117.308 million in IIIQ2013 or by minus 3.1 percent.

4. Number of Full-time Employed Persons

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987

Employed Full-time Millions IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	81.280
Employed Full-time Millions IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	90,270
∆% Full-time Employed IQ1980 to IQ1987	11.1

Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013

Employed Full-time Millions IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	121.042
Employed Full-time Millions IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	117.308
∆% Full-time Employed IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	-3.1

5. Unemployed, Unemployment Rate and Employed Part-time for Economic Reasons.

i. As shown in Table IX-2 and in the following block, in the cycle from IQ1980 to IQ1987: (a) The rate of unemployment was virtually the same at 6.9 percent in IQ1987 relative to 6.6 percent in IQ1980. (b) The number unemployed increased from 6.983 million in IQ1980 to 8.124 million in IQ1987 or 16.3 percent. (c) The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased 44.4 percent from 3.624 million in IQ1980 to 5.232 million in IQ1987.

ii. In contrast, in the economic cycle from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013: (a) The rate of unemployment increased from 4.8 percent in IVQ2007 to 7.0 percent in IIIQ2013. (b) The number unemployed increased 47.7 percent from 7.371 million in IVQ2007 to 10.885 million in IIIQ2013. (c) The number employed part-time for economic reasons because they could not find any other job increased 58.4 percent from 4.750 million in IVQ2007 to 7.522 million in IIIQ2013. (d) U6 Total Unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers NSA increased from 8.7 percent in IVQ2007 to 13.1 percent in IIIQ2013.

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987

Unemployment Rate IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	6.6
Unemployment Rate IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	6.9
Unemployed IQ1980 Millions End of Quarter	6.983
Unemployed IQ1987 Millions End of Quarter	8.124
∆%	16.3
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons Millions IQ1980 End of Quarter	3.624
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons Millions IQ1987 End of Quarter	5.232
∆%	44.4

Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013

Unemployment Rate IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	4.8
Unemployment Rate IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	7.0
Unemployed IVQ2007 Millions End of Quarter	7.371
Unemployed IIIQ2013 Millions End of Quarter	10.885
∆%	47.7
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons IVQ2007 Millions End of Quarter	4.750
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons Millions IIIQ2013 End of Quarter	7.522
∆%	58.4
U6 Total Unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers NSA
IVQ2007	8.7
IIIQ2013	13.1

6. Wealth of Households and Nonprofit Organizations.

The comparison of net worth of households and nonprofit organizations in the entire economic cycle from IQ1980 (and from IVQ1979) to IQ1987 and from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2012 is provided in Table IX-2 and in the following block. i. The data reveal the following facts for the cycles in the 1980s:

IVQ1979 to IQ1987. Net worth increased 94.1 percent from IVQ1979 to IQ1987, the all items CPI index increased 46.2 percent from 76.7 in Dec 1979 to 112.1 in Mar 1987 and real net worth increased 32.8 percent.
IQ1980 to IVQ1985. Net worth increased 65.7 percent, the all items CPI index increased 36.5 percent from 80.1 in Mar 1980 to 109.3 in Dec 1985 and real net worth increased 21.4 percent.
IVQ1979 to IVQ1985. Net worth increased 69.4 percent, the all items CPI index increased 42.5 percent from 76.7 in Dec 1979 to 109.3 in Dec 1985 and real net worth increased 18.8 percent.
IQ1980 to IQ1987. Net worth increased 89.9 percent, the all items CPI index increased 39.9 percent from 80.1 in Mar 1980 to 112.1 in Mar 1987 and real net worth increased 35.7 percent.

ii. There is disastrous performance in the current economic cycle:

IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013. Net worth increased 13.6 percent, the all items CPI increased 11.5 percent from 210.036 in Dec 2007 to 234.149 in Sep 2013 and real or inflation adjusted net worth increased 1.9 percent.

The explanation is partly in the sharp decline of wealth of households and nonprofit organizations and partly in the mediocre growth rates of the cyclical expansion beginning in IIIQ2009. US economic growth has been at only 2.3 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 17 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the third estimate of GDP for IIIQ2013 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2013/pdf/gdp3q13_3rd.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by diving GDP of $14,738.0 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,356.9 billion in IIQ2009 {[$14,738.0/$14,356.9 -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-mediocre.html).The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-mediocre.html).As a result, there are 29.3 million unemployed or underemployed in the United States for an effective unemployment rate of 18.0 percent (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/risks-of-zero-interest-rates-mediocre.html). The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation.

Period IQ1980 to IVQ1985
Net Worth of Households and Nonprofit Organizations USD Millions
IVQ1979 IQ1980	9,021.2 9,220.3
IVQ1985 IIIQ1986 IVQ1986 IQ1987	15,278.5 16,292.9 16,845,1 17,509.1
∆ USD Billions IVQ1985 IQ1987 IQ1980-IVQ1985 IQ1980-IIIQ1986 IQ1980-IVQ1986 IQ1980-IQ1987	+6,257.3 ∆%69.4 R∆%18.8 +8,487.9 ∆%94.1 R∆%32.8 +6,058.2 ∆%65.7 R∆%21.4 +7,072.6 ∆%76.7 R∆%28.4 +7,624.8 ∆%82.7 R∆%32.4 +8,288.8 ∆%89.9 R∆%35.7
Period IVQ2007 to IQ2013
Net Worth of Households and Nonprofit Organizations USD Millions
IVQ2007	67,990.3
IIIQ2013	77,259.3
∆ USD Billions	9,269.0 ∆%13.6 R∆%1.9

Net Worth = Assets – Liabilities. R∆% real percentage change or adjusted for CPI percentage change.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2013. Flow of funds, balance sheets and integrated macroeconomic accounts: third quarter 2013. Washington, DC, Federal Reserve System, Dec 9.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/Z1/Current/

7. Gross Private Domestic Investment.

i. The comparison of gross private domestic investment in the entire economic cycles from IQ1980 to IQ1987 and from IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013 is in the following block and in Table IX-2. Gross private domestic investment increased from $951.6 billion in IQ1980 to $1,173.8 billion in IQ1987 or by 23.4 percent.

ii In the current cycle, gross private domestic investment increased from $2,605.2 billion in IVQ2007 to $2,627.2 billion in IIIQ2013, or 0.8 percent. Private fixed investment fell from $2,586.3 billion in IVQ2007 to $2,494.0 billion in IIIQ2013, or decline by 3.6 percent.

Period IQ1980 to IQ1987
Gross Private Domestic Investment USD 2009 Billions
IQ1980	951.6
IQ1987	1,173.8
∆%	23.4
Period IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013
Gross Private Domestic Investment USD Billions
IVQ2007	2,605.2
IIQ2013	2,627.2
∆%	0.8
Private Fixed Investment USD 2009 Billions
IVQ2007	2,586.3
IIIQ2013	2,494.0
∆%	-3.6

Table IX-2, US, GDP and Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita Actual and Trend Growth and Employment, 1980-1985 and 2007-2012, SAAR USD Billions, Millions of Persons and ∆%


Period IQ1980 to IQ1987
GDP SAAR USD Billions
IQ1980	6,517.9
IQ1987	7,986.4
∆% IQ1980 to IQ1987 (22.9 percent from IVQ1982 $6496.8 billion)	21.1
∆% Trend Growth IQ1980 to IQ1987	24.8
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IQ1980 Chained 2009 USD	20,242
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IQ1987 Chained 2009 USD	23,891
∆% IQ1980 to IQ1987 (18.1 percent from IVQ1982 $20,230 billion)	18.0
∆% Trend Growth	16.0
Employed Millions IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	98.527
Employed Millions IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	110.229
∆% Employed IQ1980 to IQ1987	11.9
Employed Full-time Millions IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	81.280
Employed Full-time Millions IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	90.270
∆% Full-time Employed IQ1980 to IQ1987	11.1
Unemployment Rate IQ1980 NSA End of Quarter	6.6
Unemployment Rate IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	6.9
Unemployed IQ1980 Millions NSA End of Quarter	6.983
Unemployed IQ1987 Millions NSA End of Quarter	8.124
∆%	16.3
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons IQ1980 Millions NSA End of Quarter	3.624
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons Millions IQ1987 NSA End of Quarter	5.232
∆%	44.4
Net Worth of Households and Nonprofit Organizations USD Billions
IVQ1979	9,021.4
IQ1987	17,509.1
∆ USD Billions	+8,487.9
∆% CPI Adjusted	32.8
Gross Private Domestic Investment USD 2009 Billions
IQ1980	951.6
IQ1987	1173.8
∆%	23.4
Period IVQ2007 to IIQ2013
GDP SAAR USD Billions
IVQ2007	14,996.1
IIIQ2013	15,839.3
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	5.6
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013 Trend Growth	19.4
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IVQ2007 Chained 2009 USD	35,823
Real Disposable Personal Income per Capita IIIQ2013 Chained 2009 USD	36,943
∆% IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	3.1
∆% Trend Growth	12.6
Employed Millions IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	146.334
Employed Millions IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	144.651
∆% Employed IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	-1.2
Employed Full-time Millions IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	121.042
Employed Full-time Millions IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	117.308
∆% Full-time Employed IVQ2007 to IIIQ2013	-3.1
Unemployment Rate IVQ2007 NSA End of Quarter	4.8
Unemployment Rate IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	7.0
Unemployed IVQ2007 Millions NSA End of Quarter	7.371
Unemployed IIIQ2013 Millions NSA End of Quarter	10.885
∆%	47.7
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons IVQ2007 Millions NSA End of Quarter	4.750
Employed Part-time Economic Reasons Millions IIIQ2013 NSA End of Quarter	7.522
∆%	58.4
U6 Total Unemployed plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons as percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers NSA
IVQ2007	8.7
IIIQ2013	13.1
Net Worth of Households and Nonprofit Organizations USD Billions
IVQ2007	67,990.3
IIIQ2013	77.259.3
∆ USD Billions	9,269 ∆%13.6 R∆%1.9
Gross Private Domestic Investment USD Billions
IVQ2007	2,605.2
IIIQ2013	2,627.2
∆%	0.8
Private Fixed Investment USD 2005 Billions
IVQ2007	2,586.3
IIIQ2013	2,494.0
∆%	-3.6

Note: GDP trend growth used is 3.0 percent per year and GDP per capita is 2.0 percent per year as estimated by Lucas (2011May) on data from 1870 to 2010.

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm US Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/data/. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2013Jun6. Flow of funds, balance sheets and integrated macroeconomic accounts. Washington, DC, Federal Reserve System, Jun 6.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2013BEOFeb5) estimates potential GDP, potential labor force and potential labor productivity provided in Table IX-3. The CBO estimates average rate of growth of potential GDP from 1950 to 2012 at 3.3 percent per year. The projected path is significantly lower at 2.2 percent per year from 2012 to 2023. The legacy of the economic cycle expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013 at 2.3 percent on average is in contrast with 5.0 percent on average in the expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html). Subpar economic growth may perpetuate unemployment and underemployment estimated at 29.3 million or 18.0 percent of the effective labor force in Dec 2013 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html) with much lower hiring than in the period before the current cycle (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html).

Table IX-3, US, Congressional Budget Office History and Projections of Potential GDP of US Overall Economy, ∆%

	Potential GDP	Potential Labor Force	Potential Labor Productivity*
Average Annual ∆%
1950-1973	3.9	1.6	2.3
1974-1981	3.3	2.5	0.8
1982-1990	3.1	1.6	1.5
1991-2001	3.1	1.3	1.8
2002-2012	2.2	0.8	1.4
Total 1950-2012	3.3	1.5	1.7
Projected Average Annual ∆%
2013-2018	2.2	0.6	1.6
2019-2023	2.3	0.5	1.8
2012-2023	2.2	0.5	1.7

*Ratio of potential GDP to potential labor force

Source: CBO (2013BEOFeb5).

Chart IB-1 of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO 2013BEOFeb5) provides actual and potential GDP of the United States from 2000 to 2011 and projected to 2024. Lucas (2011May) estimates trend of United States real GDP of 3.0 percent from 1870 to 2010 and 2.2 percent for per capita GDP. The United States successfully returned to trend growth of GDP by higher rates of growth during cyclical expansion as analyzed by Bordo (2012Sep27, 2012Oct21) and Bordo and Haubrich (2012DR). Growth in expansions following deeper contractions and financial crises was much higher in agreement with the plucking model of Friedman (1964, 1988). The unusual weakness of growth at 2.3 percent on average from IIIQ2009 to IIIQ2013 during the current economic expansion in contrast with 5.0 percent on average in the cyclical expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/tapering-quantitative-easing-mediocre.html) cannot be explained by the contraction of 4.3 percent of GDP from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009 and the financial crisis. Weakness of growth in the expansion is perpetuating unemployment and underemployment of 29.3 million or 18.0 percent of the labor force as estimated for Dec 2013 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/01/twenty-nine-million-unemployed-or.html). There is no exit from unemployment/underemployment and stagnating real wages because of the collapse of hiring (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/12/theory-and-reality-of-secular.html). The US economy and labor markets collapsed without recovery. Abrupt collapse of economic conditions can be explained only with cyclic factors (Lazear and Spletzer 2012Jul22) and not by secular stagnation (Hansen 1938, 1939, 1941 with early dissent by Simons 1942).

Chart IB-1, US, Congressional Budget Office, Actual and Projections of Potential GDP, 2000-2024, Trillions of Dollars

Source: Congressional Budget Office, CBO (2013BEOFeb5).

References

Abraham, Katharine G., John C. Haltiwanger, Kristin Sandusky and James Spletzer. 2009. Exploring differences in employment between household and establishment data. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research, Mar 2009.

Allen, William R. 1993. Irving Fisher and the 100 percent reserve proposal. Journal of Law and Economics 36 (2, Oct): 703-17.

Andrés, Javier, J. David López-Salido and Edward Nelson. 2004. Tobin’s imperfect asset substitution in optimizing equilibrium. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36 (4, Aug): 665-90.

Asso, Pier Francesco, George A. Kahn and Robert Leeson. 2007. The Taylor Rule and the transformation of monetary policy. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City RWP 07-II, Dec.

Asso, Pier Francesco, George A. Kahn and Robert Leeson. 2010. The Taylor Rule and the practice of central banking. Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, RWP 10-05, Feb.

Atkeson, Andrew and Patrick J. Kehoe. 1998. Paths of development for early- and late-bloomers in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin world. Minneapolis, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Staff Report No. 256, Oct.

Atkeson, Andrew and Patrick J. Kehoe. 2004. Deflation and depression: is there an empirical link. American Economic Review 94 (2, May): 99-103.

Bagehot, Walter. 1873. Lombard Street, 14^th edn. London: Kegan, Paul & Co, 1917.

Ball, Laurence and N. Gregory Mankiw. 2002. The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives 16 (4, Autumn): 115-36.

Bank of Japan. 2012Feb14APP. Amendment to “Principal Terms and Conditions for the Asset Purchase Program.” Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Feb 14 http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2012/rel120214a.pdf

Bank of Japan. 2012Feb14PSG. The price stability goal in the medium to long term. Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Feb 14 http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2012/k120214b.pdf

Bank of Japan. 2012Feb14EME. Enhancement of monetary easing. Tokyo, Bank of Japan, Feb 14 http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/release_2012/k120214a.pdf

Barbosa, Fernando de Holanda. 1987. Domestic and international sources of Brazilian inflation: 1947-80. In Luigi L. Pasinetti and P.J. Lloyd, eds. Structural change, economic interdependence and world development. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Barro, Robert J. and David B. Gordon. 1983a. Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy. Journal of Monetary Economics 12 (1): 101-121.

Barro, Robert J. and David B. Gordon. 1983b. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy 91 (4, Aug): 589-610.

Barsky, Robert B. and Lutz Kilian. 2004. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (4, Autumn): 115-34.

Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. 2011Jun. Basel II: a global regulatory framework for more resilient banks and banking systems. Basel, Switzerland: BIS, Jun 2011 http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs189.pdf

Batini, Nicoletta and Edward Nelson. 2002. The lag from monetary policy actions to inflation: Friedman revisited. London, Bank of England, External MPC Unit Discussion Paper No. 6, Jan.

Beim, David O. 2011Oct9. Can the euro be saved? New York City, Columbia University, Oct 9 http://www1.gsb.columbia.edu/mygsb/faculty/research/pubfiles/5573/Can%20the%20Euro%20be%20Saved.pdf

Benhabib, Jess and Mark M. Spiegel. 2009. Moderate inflation and the deflation-depression link. 2009. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 41 (4, Jun): 787-798.

Benston, George J. and George G. Kaufman. 1997. The FDICA after five years. Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (3, Summer, 1997): 139-58.

Bernanke, Ben S. 2002. Deflation: making sure “it” doesn’t happen here. Washington, DC, National Economists Club, Nov 21 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2000. Japanese monetary policy: a case of self-induced paralysis? In Ryoichi Mikitani and Adam S. Posen, Japan’s financial crisis and its parallels to US experience. Washington, DC, Institute for International Economics, Special Report 13, Sep 2000.

Bernanke, Ben S. 2002. Deflation: making sure “it” doesn’t happen here. Washington, DC, Before the National Economists Club, Nov 21 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2002/20021121/default.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2003. A perspective on inflation targeting. Business Economics 38 (3, Jul): 7–15.

Bernanke, Ben S. 2003JPY. Some thoughts on monetary policy in Japan. Tokyo, Before the Japan Society of Monetary Economics, May 31 http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2003/20030531/default.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2009SL. The crisis and the policy response. London, London School of Economics, Stamp Lecture, Jan 13 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090113a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2010WP. What the Fed did and why: supporting the recovery and sustaining price stability. Washington Post, Nov 4. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/03/AR2010110307372_pf.html

Bernanke, Ben S. 2011Oct4JEC. Statement. Washington, DC, Joint Economic Committee, US Congress, Oct 4 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20111004a.pdf

Bernanke, Ben S. 2012Apr25. Transcript of Chairman Bernanke’s press conference April 25, 2012. Washington, DC, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Apr 25 http://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20120425.pdf

Bernanke, Ben S. 2012Aug22. Letter to The Honorable Darrell E. Issa. Washington, DC, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Aug 22 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Bernankeletter0812.pdf

Bernanke, Ben S. 2012Oct14IMF. US monetary policy and international implications. Tokyo, Japan, Challenges of the Global Financial System: Risks and Governance under Evolving Globalization, High-level Seminar sponsored by Bank of Japan-International Monetary Fund, Oct 14 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121014a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2012JHAug31. Monetary policy since the onset of the crisis. Jackson Hole, WY, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Aug 31 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20120831a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2012Nov20. The economic recovery and economic policy. New York City, NY, Economic Club, Nov 20 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20121120a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2013Mar25. Monetary policy and the global economy. London, Bank of England and London School of Economics, Mar 25 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20130325a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. 2013Jul17. Statement on semiannual monetary policy report to the Congress. Washington, DC, Jul 17, US House of Representatives, Jul 18, US Senate http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20130717a.htm

Bernanke, Ben S. and Frederic S. Mishkin. 1997. Inflation targeting: a new framework for monetary policy? Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (2, Spring): 97–116.

Bernanke, Ben S. and Vincent R. Reinhart. 2004. Conducting monetary policy at very low short-term interest rates. American Economic Review 94 (2): 85-90.

Black, Fischer and Myron Scholes. 1973. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of Political Economy 81 (May/June): 637-54.

Blanchard, Olivier. 2011WEOSep. Foreword to IMF 2011WEOSep: XIII-XIV.

Blanchard, Olivier. 2012WEOApr. Foreword to IMF 2012WEOApr: XIII-XIV

Blanchard, Olivier and Lawrence F. Katz. 1997. What we know and do not know about the natural rate of unemployment. Journal of Economic Perspectives 11 (1, Winter): 51-72.

Blinder, Alan S. 2000. Monetary policy at the zero lower bound: balancing the risks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 32 (4, Nov): 1093-1099.

Blinder, Alan S. and Mark Zandi. 2010Jul27. How the Great Recession was brought to an end. Princeton, NJ, http://www.princeton.edu/~blinder/End-of-Great-Recession.pdf

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2012Dec6. Flow of funds accounts of the United States. Washington, DC, Federal Reserve System, Dec 6 http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/default.htm

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2017Jul17. Monetary policy report. Washington, DC, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, Jul 17 http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/mpr_default.htm

Bordo, Michael D. 2012Sep27. Financial recessions don’t lead to weak recoveries. Wall Street Journal, Sep 27 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444506004577613122591922992.html

Bordo, Michael E. 2012Oct21. Why this US recovery is weaker. Bloomberg View, Oct 21 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-10-21/why-this-u-s-recovery-is-weaker.html

Bordo, Michael D. and Hugh Rockoff. 2011. The influence of Irving Fisher on Milton Friedman’s monetary economics. Denver, CO, AEA Session on Irving Fisher and Modern Economics: 100 years after the Purchasing Power of Money, Jan 8 www.aeaweb.org/aea/2011conference/program/retrieve.php?pdfid

Bordo, Michael D, Ehsan Choudhri and Anna J. Schwartz. 1995. Could stable money have averted the Great Contraction. Economic Inquiry 33 (3, Jul): 484-505.

Bordo, Michael D. and Harold James. 2001. The Adam Klug Memorial Lecture: Haberler versus Nurkse: the case for floating exchange rates as an alternative to Bretton Woods? Cambridge, MA: NBER, WP 8545, Oct.

Bordo, Michael D. and Jopseh G. Haubrich. 2012DR. Deep recessions, fast recoveries, and financial crises: evidence from the American record. Cleveland, OH, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, WP 12/14 http://www.clevelandfed.org/research/workpaper/2012/wp1214.pdf

Boskin, Michael J. 2010Sep. Summer of economic discontent. Wall Street Journal, Sep 2 http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html?KEYWORDS=michael+boskin

Bricker, Jesse, Arthur B. Kennickell, Kevin B. Moore and John Sabelhaus. 2012. Changes in US family finances from 2007 to 2010: evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin 98 (2, Jun): 2-80 http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/bulletin/2012/PDF/scf12.pdf

Brunner, Karl and Allan H. Meltzer. 1973. Mr. Hicks and the “monetarists.” Economica NS 40 (157, Feb): 44-59.

Brunnermeier, Markus K. and Lasse Hege Pedersen. 2009. Market liquidity and funding liquidity. Review of Financial Studies 22 (6): 2201-38.

Buiter, Willem. 2011Oct31. EFSF needs bigger bazooka to maximize its firepower. Financial Times, Oct 31 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/c4886f7a-03d3-11e1-bbc5-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1cMoq63R5

Buiter, Willem. 2012Oct15. Only big debt restructuring can save euro. Financial Times, Oct 15 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/edd92eee-12de-11e2-aa9c-00144feabdc0.html#axzz29OP0k8cX

Brunner, Karl and Allan H. Meltzer. 1973. Mr. Hicks and the “monetarists.” Economica NS 40 (157, Feb): 44-59.

Burdekin, Richard C. 2005. US pressure on China’s currency: Milton Friedman and the silver episode revisited. Claremont McKenna College, Nov 2005 http://www.claremontmckenna.edu/rdschool/papers/2005-07.pdf

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2011Feb11. Overview of seasonal adjustment of the current employment statistics program. Washington, Feb 11, 2011 http://www.bls.gov/ces/cessa_oview.pdf

Bureau of Labor Statistics. 2012Feb3. Seasonal adjustment files and documentation. Washington, BLD, Feb 3 http://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseasadj.htm

Caballero, Ricardo and Francsco Giavazzi. 2012Jan15. Parity may be euro’s last chance. Bloomberg, Jan 15 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-16/dollar-parity-may-be-euro-salvation-commentary-by-caballero-and-giavazzi.html

Cagan, Phillip. 1965. Determinants and effects of changes in the stock of money, 1875-1960. New York: Columbia University Press.

Calomiris, Charles C. and Gary B. Gorton. 1991. The origins of banking panics: models, facts and bank regulation. In R. Glenn Hubbard, ed. Financial markets and financial crises. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Cameron, Rondo E. 1961. France and the economic development of Europe 1800-1914: conquests of peace and seeds of war. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Cameron, Rondo E. 1967. Banking in the early stages of industrialization. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cameron, Rondo E. 1972. Banking and economic development. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cameron, Rondo E. 1989. A concise economic history of the world: from Paleolithic times to the present. New York and Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Cameron, Rondo E., V.I. Bovkyn, Richard Sylla, Mira Wilkins, Boris Anan’ich, and A. A. Fursenko, eds. 1992. International Banking 1870-1914. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

CBO. 2011JunLTBO. CBO’s long-term budget outlook. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Jun http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/122xx/doc12212/06-21-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf

CBO. 2012JanBEO. The budget and economic outlook: fiscal years 2012 to 2022. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, Jan http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/126xx/doc12699/01-31-2012_Outlook.pdf

CBO. 2012Jan31. Historical budget data. Washington, DC, Jan 31.

CBO. 2012MarBEO. Updated budget projections: fiscal years 2012 to 2022. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, Mar http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/March2012Baseline.pdf

CBO. 2012LTBO. The 2012 long-term budget outlook. Washington, DC: Congressional Budget Office, Jun http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/attachments/06-05-Long-Term_Budget_Outlook.pdf

CBO. 2012AugBEO. An update to the budget and economic outlook: fiscal years 2012 to 2022. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43539

CBO. 2012NovMBR. Monthly budget review fiscal year 2012. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov 7 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43698

CBO. 2012NovCDR. Choices for deficit reduction. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43692

CBO. 2012NovEEP. Economic effects of policies contributing to fiscal tightening in 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Nov http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43694

CBO. 2013BEOFeb5. The budget and economic outlook: fiscal years 2013 to 2023. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43907

CBO. 2013HBDFeb5. Historical budget data—February 2013 baseline projections. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43904

CBO. 2013MEFeb5. Macroeconomic effects of alternative budget paths. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Feb 5 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43769

CBO (2013Aug12). 2013AugHBD. Historical budget data—August 2013. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Aug 12 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44507

CBO (2013Aug12Av). Kim Kowaleski and Amber Marcellino. Updated historical budget data. CBO, Aug 12 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44508

CBO (2013Sep11). 2013Sep11. CBO’s baseline budget projections updated. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Sep 11 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44574

CBO (2013Sep17). The 2013 long-term budget outlook. Washington, DC, Congressional Budget Office, Sep 17 http://www.cbo.gov/publication/44521

Chung, Hess, Jean-Philippe Laforte, David Reifschneider and John C. Williams. 2011. Have we underestimated the likelihood and severity of zero lower bound events? San Francisco, FRBSF, WP 2011-01 http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/papers/2011/wp11-01bk.pdf

Cline, William. 2001. The role of the private sector in resolving financial crises in emerging markets. Cambridge, MA, NBER, Jun.

Cline, William. 2002. Private sector involvement: definition, measurement and implementation. London, Bank of England Conference, Jul-23-4.

Cobet, Aaron E. and Gregory A. Wilson. 2002. Comparing 50 years of labor productivity in US and foreign manufacturing. Monthly Labor Review (Jun): 51-65.

Cochrane, John A. 2010A. The government debt valuation equation. An appendix to “Understanding policy.” http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/john.cochrane/research/Papers/

Cochrane, John H. 2011Jan. Understanding policy in the great recession: some unpleasant fiscal arithmetic. European Economic Review 55 (1, Jan): 2-30.

Cochrane, John H. 2012Aug31. The Federal Reserve: from central bank to central planner. Wall Street Journal, Aug 31 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444812704577609384030304936.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

Cochrane, John H. and Luigi Zingales. 2009. Lehman and the financial crisis. Wall Street Journal, Sep 15.

Cohen, Morris Raphael and Ernest Nagel. 1934. An introduction to logic and scientific method. New York: Harcourt, Brace and Company.

Cole, Harold L. and Lee E. Ohanian. 1999. The Great Depression in the United States from a neoclassical perspective. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 23 (1, Winter): 2-24.

Cole, Harold L. and Narayana Kocherlakota. 1998. Zero nominal interest rates: why they are good and how to get them. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 22 (2, Spring): 2-10.

Cooley, Thomas F. and Lee E. Ohanian. 2010. FDR and the lessons of the Depression. Wall Street Journal, Aug 27 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052748703461504575443402028756986?KEYWORDS=Thomas+Cooley

Contador, Cláudio R. and Haddad, Cláudio L. 1975. Produto real, moeda e preços. Revista Brasileira de Estatística 36(143, jul/set): 407-40.

Cox, John C., Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. and Stephen A. Ross. 1981. A re-examination of traditional hypotheses about the term structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 36 (4, Sep): 769-99.

Cox, John C., Jonathan E. Ingersoll, Jr. and Stephen A. Ross. 1985. A theory of the term structure of interest rates. Econometrica 53 (2, Mar): 385-407.

Culbertson, John M. 1957. The term structure of interest rates. Quarterly Journal of Economics 71 (4, Nov): 485-517.

Culbertson, J. M. 1960. Friedman on the lag in effect of monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 68 (6, Dec): 617-21.

Culbertson, J. M. 1961. The lag in effect of monetary policy: reply. Journal of Political Economy 69 (5, Oct): 467-77.

Culbertson, John M. 1963. The term structure of interest rates: reply. Quarterly Journal of Economics 77 (4, Nov): 691-6.

D’Amico Stefania and Thomas B. King. 2010. Flow and stock effects of large-sale Treasury purchases. Washington, DC, Federal Reserve board, Sep.

Darby, Michael R. Darby. 1974. The permanent income theory of consumption—a restatement. Quarterly Journal of Economics (88, 2): 228-50.

Deane, Phyllis. 1968. New estimates of gross national product for the United Kingdom 1830-1914. Review of Income and Wealth 14 (2, Jun): 95-112.

Delfim Netto, Antonio. 1959. O problema do café no Brasil. São Paulo: Faculdade de Economia e Administração da Universidade de São Paulo. Partly reprinted in Pelaez (1973).

De Long, J. Bradford. 1997. America’s peacetime inflation: the 1970s. In Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer, eds. Reducing inflation: motivation and strategy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1997.

DeNavas-Walt, Carmen, Bernadette D. Proctor and Jessica C. Smith. 2012Sep. Income, poverty and health insurance coverage in the United States: 2011. Washington, DC, US Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p60-243.pdf

DeNavas-Walt, Carmen, Bernadette D. Proctor and Jessica C. Smith. 2013. Income, poverty, and health insurance coverage in the United States: 2012. Washington, DC: US Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P60-245, US Government Printing Office http://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p60-245.pdf

Doh, Taeyoung. 2010. The efficacy of large-scale asset purchases at the zero lower bound. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review Second Quarter 2010: 5-34 http://www.kansascityfed.org/Publicat/EconRev/PDF/10q2Doh.pdf

Dorrance, G. S. 1948. The income terms of trade. Review of Economic Studies 16 (1, 1948-1949): 50-6.

Draghi, Mario. 2011Dec1. Introductory statement by Mario Draghi, President of the ECB. Brussels, Hearing before the Plenary of the European Parliament, Dec 1 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111201.en.html

Draghi, Mario. 2011Dec8. Introductory statement to the press conference. Frankfurt am Main, ECB, Dec 8 http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2011/html/is111208.en.html

Draghi, Mario. 2012May26. Speech by Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank. London, Global Investment Conference, Jul 26 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120726.en.html

Draghi, Mario. 2012Aug29. The future of the euro: stability through change. Frankfurt am Main, ECB, published in Die Zeit, 29 Aug 2012 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120829.en.html

Duffie, Darell and Kenneth J. Singleton. 2003. Credit risk: pricing, measurement and management. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Eggertsson, Gauti B. and Paul Krugman. 2010. Debt, deleveraging and the liquidity trap: A Fisher-Minsky-Koo approach. Princeton, Princeton University, Nov 16 http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/debt_deleveraging_ge_pk.pdf

European Council. 2011Dec9. Statements by the euro area heads of state or government. Brussels, European Union, Dec 9 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/126658.pdf

European Council. 2012Oct19. Conclusions. Brussels, European Union, Oct 19 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/133004.pdf

Delfim Netto, Antonio. 1958. O problema do café no Brasil. São Paulo: Faculdade de Economia e Administração, 1958. Partly reprinted in Peláez, Carlos Manuel. 1973. Ensaios sobre café e desenvolvimento econômico. Rio de Janeiro, IBC, 1973.

Diamond, DouglasW. 1984. Financial intermediation and delegated monitoring. Review of Economic Studies 51: 393-414.

Diamond, Douglas W. 1996. Financial intermediation as delegated monitoring: a simple example. Economic Quarterly Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 82 (3): 51-66.

Diamond, Douglas W. and Philip H. Dybvig. 1983. Bank runs, deposit insurance and liquidity. Journal of Political Economy 91 (3, Jun): 401-49.

Diamond, Douglas W. and Philip H. Dybvig. 1986. Banking theory, deposit insurance and bank regulation. Journal of Business 59 (1, Jan): 55-68.

Diamond, Douglas W. and Raghuram G. Rajan. 2000. A theory of bank capital. Journal of Finance 55 (6, Dec): 2431-65.

Diamond, Douglas W. and Raghuram G. Rajan. 2001a. Banks and liquidity. American Economic Review 91 (2, May): 422-5.

Diamond, Douglas W. and Raghuram G. Rajan. 2001b. Liquidity Risk, liquidity creation and financial fragility: a theory of banking. Journal of Political Economy 109 (2, Apr): 287-327.

Dornbusch, Rudiger. 1976. Expectations and exchange rate dynamics. Journal of Political Economy 84 (6, Dec): 1161-76.

Draghi, Mario. 2011Dec15. The euro, monetary stability and the design of a fiscal compact. Berlin, Dec 15 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2011/html/sp111215.en.html

Draghi, Mario. 2012May3. Introductory statement to the press conference. Barcelona, May 3 http://www.ecb.int/press/pressconf/2012/html/is120503.en.html

Draghi, Mario. 2012Jun15. President’s address at the 14^th ECB and its Watchers Conference. Frankfurt am Main, European Central Bank, Jun 15 http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/2012/html/sp120615.en.html

Economides, Nicholas, Yannis Ioannides, Emmanuel Petrakis, Christopher Pissarides and Thanasis Stengos. 2012. What’s at stake in the Greek vote. Wall Street Journal, Jun 14 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303822204577466541312448940.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

Eichengreen, Barry and Jeffrey Sachs. 1985. Exchange rates and economic recovery in the 1930s. Journal of Economic History 45 (4, Dec): 925-46.

Eggertson, Gauti B. and Michael Woodford. 2003. The zero bound on interest rates and optimal monetary policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity I (2003): 139-211.

European Central Bank. 2011MBDec. Editorial. Monthly Bulletin December 2011, 5-9 http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/mobu/mb201112en.pdf

European Commission. 2011Oct26SS. Euro summit statement. Brussels, European Commission, Oct 26 http://ec.europa.eu/news/economy/111027_en.htm

European Commission. 2011Oct26MRES. Main results of Euro Summit. Brussels, European Commission, Oct 26 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/125645.pdf

European Council. 2011Dec9. Statements by the euro area heads of state or government. Brussels, European Union, Dec 9 http://www.consilium.europa.eu/uedocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/ec/126658.pdf

Evans, Charles. 2010. Monetary policy in a low-inflation environment: developing a state-contingent price-level target. Boston, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston’s 55^th Economic Conference, Oct 16 http://chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/2010/10_16_boston_speech.cfm#_ftn1

Evans, Charles. 2012Aug27. Some thoughts on global risks and monetary policy. Hong Kong, China, Market News International Seminar, Aug 27 http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/2012/08_27_12_hongkong.cfm

Evans, Charles. 2012Nov27. Monetary policy in challenging times. Toronto, Canada, Howe Institute, Nov 27

http://www.chicagofed.org/webpages/publications/speeches/2012/11_27_12_cdhowe.cfm

Fabozi, Frank J., Gerald W. Buestow, Jr., and Robert R. Johnson. Measuring interest rate risk. In Frank J. Fabozzi, ed. The handbook of fixed income securities, 7^th Edition. New York, McGraw, 2006.

Fama, Eugene F. 1970. Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance 25 (2): 383-417.

Fama, Eugene F. and Robert R. Bliss. 1987. The information in long-maturity forward rates. American Economic Review 77 (4, Sep): 680-92.

Fisher, Irving. 1930. The theory of interest. New York: The Macmillan Company http://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Fisher/fshToI19.html

Fisher, Irving. 1933. The debt-deflation theory of great depressions. Econometrica 1(4): 337-57.

Fisher, Irving. 100% Money. 1936. New York: Adelphi Company.

Fishlow, Albert. 1965. American railroads and the transformation of the ante-bellum economy. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Feldstein, Martin. 2012Mar19. Obama’s tax hikes threaten a new US recession. Financial Times, Mar 19 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/0d0e7acc-6f7d-11e1-9c57-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pexRlsiQ

Fleming, J. Marcus. 1962. Domestic financial policies under fixed and under floating exchange rates. IMF Staff Papers 9: 369-79.

Fogel, Robert W. 1964. Railroads and American economic growth: essays in econometric history. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Fogel, Robert W. and Stanley Engerman. 1974. Time on the cross. Boston: Little Brown.

Forbes, Kristin J. 2012JHAug9. The big “C”: identifying and mitigating contagion. Jackson Hole, WY, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium, Aug 31 http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/kf.pdf

Friedman, Milton. 1953. The effects of a full-employment policy on economic stability: a formal analysis. In Milton Friedman, Essays on positive economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Friedman, Milton. 1953b. The case for flexible exchange rates. In Milton Friedman, Essays on positive economics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: 157-203.

Friedman, Milton. 1957. A Theory of the Consumption Function. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Friedman, Milton. 1961. The lag in effect of monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 69 (5, Oct): 447-66.

Friedman, Milton. 1964. The monetary studies of the National Bureau. In The National Bureau enters its forty-fifth year. New York, NY: National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., Forty-Fourth Annual Report: 7-25 http://www.nber.org/chapters/c4453.pdf

Friedman, Milton. 1968. The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review 58 (1, Mar): 1-17.

Friedman, Milton. 1969. The optimum quantity of money. In Milton Friedman, The optimum quantity of money and other essays. Chicago: Aldine, 1969.

Friedman, Milton. 1970. Controls on interest rates paid by banks. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 2 (1, Feb): 15-32.

Friedman, Milton. 1982. Monetary policy: theory and practice. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 14 (1, Feb): 98-118.

Friedman, Milton. 1988. The “plucking model” of business fluctuations revisited. Palo Alto, CA, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Working Papers in Economics E-88-48, Dec 1988.

Friedman, Milton. 1989. Bimetalism revisited. Palo Alto, CA, The Hoover Institution, Stanford University, Working Papers in Economics E-89-24. Aug 1989.

Friedman, Milton. Franklin D. Roosevelt, Silver and China. Journal of Political Economy 100 (1, Feb): 62-83.

Friedman, Milton and Anna Jacobson Schwartz. 1963. A monetary history of the United States, 1867-1960. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Friedman, Milton and Anna Jacobson Schwartz. 1970. Monetary statistics of the United States: estimates, sources, and methods. New York: Columbia University Press.

FOMC. 2006Dec12. Meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee December 12, 2006. Washington, DC, Federal Reserve, Dec 12 http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC20061212meeting.pdf

Gagnon, Joseph, Matthew Raskin, Julie Remache and Brian Sack. 2010. Large-scale asset purchases by the Federal Reserve: did they work. New York, FRBNY Staff Report no. 441, Mar http://data.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr441.pdf

Georgescu-Rogen, Nicholas. 1960. Economic theory and agrarian economics. Oxford Economic Papers New Series 12 (1, Feb): 1-40.

Gorton, Gary. 2009EFM. The subprime panic. European Financial Management 15 (1): 10-46.

Graham, Frank D. 1936. Partial reserve money and the 100 per cent proposal. American Economic Review (26, 3): 428-40.

Gorton, Gary and Andrew Metrick. 2010H. Haircuts. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 92 (6, Nov/Dec): 507-19 http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/10/11/Gorton.pdf

Gorton, Gary and Andrew Metrick. 2010SB. Securitized banking and the run on repo. New Haven, Yale University, 2010, Nov.

Greenspan, Alan. 2004. Risk and uncertainty in monetary policy. American Economic Review 94 (2, May): 33-40. Also available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/speeches/2004/20040103/default.htm

Gürkaynak, Refet S., Brian Sack and Eric T. Swanson. 2005. Do actions speak louder than words? The response of asset prices to monetary policy actions and statements. International Journal of Central Banking 1 (May): 55-93.

Haberler, Gottfried. 1937. Prosperity and depression. Lake Success, New York: United Nations. http://mises.org/document/4617/

Haddad, Cláudio L. 1974. Growth of Brazilian real output. Chicago, Ph.D. Dissertation, University of Chicago, Jun.

Hamilton, Alexander. 1780. The national Bank. In Henry Cabot Lodge, ed. The works of Alexander Hamilton. New York and London: G. P. Putnam & Sons, 1904: 319-45. http://oll.libertyfund.org/?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=1380&chapter=64319&layout=html#a_1594266

Hamilton, James D. and Jing Wu. 2010. The effectiveness of alternative monetary policy tools in a zero lower bound environment. San Diego, University of California San Diego, Nov 3 http://dss.ucsd.edu/~jhamilto/zlb.pdf

Hansen, Alvin H. 1938. Full recovery of stagnation? New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1938.

Hansen, Alvin H. 1939. Economic progress and declining population growth. American Economic Review 29, 1 (Mar, 1939): 1-15.

Hansen, Alvin H. 1941. Fiscal policy and business cycles. New York: W. W. Norton & Co., 1941.

Harberger, Arnold C. 1971. Three basic postulates for applied welfare economics: an interpretive essay. Journal of Economic Literature 9 (3): 785-97.

Harberger, Arnold C. 1997. New frontiers in project evaluation? World Bank Research Observer 12 (1): 73-9.

Harris, Jennifer M. 2011BA. Benchmark article. Washington, DC, Bureau of Labor Statistics http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesbmart.pdf

Hetzel, Robert L. and Ralph F. Leach. 2001. The Treasury-Fed accord: a new narrative account. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 87 (1, Winter): 33-55.

Hicks, John R. 1935. A suggestion for simplifying the theory of money. Economica NS 2 (5, Feb): 1-19.

Hicks, John R. 1937. Mr. Keynes and the “classics”: a suggested interpretation. Econometrica 5 (2, Apr): 147-59.

Hicks, John R. 1962. Liquidity. Economic Journal 72 (288, Dec): 787-802.

Hicks, John R. 1975. The scope and status of welfare economics. Oxford Economic Papers 27 (3): 307-26.

Imlah, Albert H. 1958. Economic elements in the Pax Britannica. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1958.

Hallerbach, Winfried G. 2001. Duration and Dimension. Tinbergen Institute Working Paper No. TI 99-047/2, Erasmus University, Amsterdam, the Netherlands http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/cf_dev/AbsByAuth.cfm?per_id=89567

Ho, Tai-kuang and Cheng-chung Lai. 2012. Silver fetters? The rise and fall of Chinese price level under fluctuating world silver price, 1928-34. Hsinchu, Taiwan, National Tsiang Hua University, Nov http://apebh2013.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/ho-lai-textrv.pdf

Hobbs, Frank and Nicole Stoops. 2002. Demographic trends in the 20^th century. Washington, DC, US Government Printing Office http://www.census.gov/prod/2002pubs/censr-4.pdf

Hoover, Ethel D. 1958. Wholesale and retail prices in the nineteenth century. Journal of Economic History 18 (3, Sep): 298-316.

Hoover, Ethel D. 1960. Retail prices after 1850. In Trends in the American economy in the nineteenth century. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1960.

IMF. 2011WEOSep. World economic outlook Sep 11: slowing growth, rising risks. Washington, DC, IMF Sep http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02/pdf/text.pdf

IMF. 2011JSRNov23. Japan sustainability report. Washington, DC, IMF, Nov 23 http://www.imf.org/external/np/country/2011/mapjapanpdf.pdf

IMF. 2012GFSRJan24. Global Financial Stability Report: market update. Washington, DC, IMF, Jan 24 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fmu/eng/2012/01/index.htm

IMF. 2012FMJan24. Fiscal Monitor Update. Washington, DC, IMF, Jan 24 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2012/update/01/fmindex.htm

IMF. 2012WEOJan24. World Economic Outlook Update: an update of the key WEO projections. Washington, DC, IMF, Jan 24 http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/update/01/index.htm

IMF. 2012WEOApr. World Economic Outlook April 2012: growth resuming, dangers remains. Washington, DC, IMF, 2012, Apr http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/pdf/text.pdf

IMF. 2012GFSRApr. Global financial stability report: the quest for lasting stability. Washington, DC, IMF 2012, Apr http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/2012/01/pdf/text.pdf

IMF. 2012FMApr. Fiscal monitor: balancing fiscal policy risks. Washington, DC, IMF, Apr

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2012/01/pdf/fm1201.pdf

IMFC. 2012Apr20. Joint Statement of the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors on IMF Resources. Washington, DC, IMF, Apr 20 http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12144.htm

IMFC. 2012Apr21. Communiqué of the Twenty-Fifth Meeting of the IMFC. Washington, DC, IMF, Apr 21 http://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12145.htm

IMF. 2012FSAPJun8. Spain: Financial Stability Assessment. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, Jun http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2012/cr12137.pdf

IMF. 2012FMOct. Fiscal Monitor: taking stock a progress report on fiscal adjustment. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, Oct http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2012/02/pdf/fm1202.pdf

IMF. 2012GFSROct. Global Financial and Stability Report: restoring confidence and progressing on reforms. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, Oct http://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2012/02/pdf/text.pdf

IMF. 2012WEOOct. World Economic Outlook October 2012: coping with high debt and sluggish growth. Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, Oct http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/pdf/text.pdf

Ingersoll, Jonathan. 1987. Theory of Financial Decision Making. New Jersey: Rowman.

Ireland, Peter N. 1999. Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States. Journal of Monetary Economics 44 (2): 279-91.

Ireland, Peter N. 2003. Implementing the Friedman rule. Review of Economic Dynamics 6(2003): 120-134.

Issa, Darrell E. 2012Aug1. Letter to the Honorable Ben Bernanke. Washington DC, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Congress of the United States, House of Representatives, Aug 1 http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/Bernankeletter0812.pdf

Ito, Takatoshi. Interventions and Japanese economic recovery. YenMacro, Michigan 2004 1 http://www.fordschool.umich.edu/rsie/Conferences/CGP/Oct2004Papers/Ito.pdf

Jensen, Michael C. 1993. The modern industrial revolution, exit and the failure of internal control systems. Journal of Finance 48 (3, Jul): 831-80.

Joint Forum of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, International Organization of Securities Commissions and the International Association of Supervisors. 2004. Credit risk transfer. BCBS, BIS, Oct. http://www.bis.org/publ/joint10.pdf

Kahil, Raouf. 1973. Inflation and economic development in Brazil. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

Kendall, Maurice G. and Alan Stuart. 1968. The advanced theory of statistics, III. New York: Hafner, 1968.

Kim, Chang-Jin and Charles R. Nelson. 1999. Friedman’s plucking model of business fluctuations: tests and estimates of permanent and transitory components. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 31 (3, Part 1, Aug): 317-334.

Kohn, Donald L. 2009Apr18. Monetary policy in the financial crisis. Nashville, TN, Conference in Honor of Dewey Daane, Apr 18 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20090418a.htm

Kohn, Donald L. 2009Sep10. Comments on “Interpreting the Unconventional US Monetary policy of 2007-2009.” Washington, Brookings Institution, Sep 10 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20090910a.htm

Krugman, Paul. 1998. It’s baaack: Japan’s slump and the return of the liquidity trap. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1998): 137-205.

Krugman, Paul. 2011Jun 18. Mr. Keynes and the moderns. Princeton, Princeton University Jun 18. Prepared for Conference on 75^th Anniversary of Keynes’ General Theory, Cambridge, Cambridge University, Jun 19-21 http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/keynes_and_the_moderns.pdf

Krugman, Paul. 2012Apr24. Earth to Ben Bernanke: chairman Bernanke should listen to Professor Bernanke. New York Times Magazine, Apr 24 http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/29/magazine/chairman-bernanke-should-listen-to-professor-bernanke.html?pagewanted=all

Kuznets, Simon. 1971. Modern economic growth: findings and reflections. Lecture to the memory of Alfred Nobel, Dec 11, 1971 http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/economics/laureates/1971/kuznets-lecture.html

Kydland, Finn E. and Edward C. Prescott. 1977. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy 85 (3, Jun): 473-92.

Lazear, Edward P. 2012Jan19. The jobs picture is still far from rosy. Wall Street Journal, Jan 19 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204468004577165292033648810.html

Lazear, Edward P. 2013Jan7. Chinese “currency manipulation” is not the problem. Wall Street Journal, Jan 7 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323320404578213203581231448.html

Lazear, Edward P. and Spletzer, James R. 2012JHJul22. The United States labor market: status quo or a new normal? Jackson, Hole, WY, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium, Sep 1 http://www.kansascityfed.org/publicat/sympos/2012/el-js.pdf

Lazear, Edward P. and James R. Spletzer. 2012Mar. Hiring, churn and the business cycle. Cambridge, MA, NBER, Mar http://www.nber.org/papers/w17910

Lazear, Edward P. and James R. Spletzer. 2012May. Hiring, churn and the business cycle. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 102 (May, No. 3): 575-579.

Leff, Nathaniel H. 1975. Review of Inflation and Economic Development in Brazil, 1946-1963 by Raouf Kahil. Journal of Economic Literature 12 (2, Jun): 510-11.

Levin, Andrew and John B. Taylor. 2009. Falling behind the curve: a positive analysis of stop-start monetary policies and the Great Inflation. Cambridge, MA, NBER, Dec.

Lintner, John. 1965. The valuation of risk assets and the selection of risky investments in stock portfolios and capital budgets. Review of Economics and Statistics 47 (1, Feb): 12-37.

Lucas, Robert E. 1976. Econometric policy evaluation: a critique. Carnegie Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy I (1976): 16-46.

Lucas, Robert E. 2004. The industrial revolution: past and future. In Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 2003Annual Report, May 1, 2004 http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_display.cfm?id=3333

Lucas, Robert E. 2011May. The US recession of 2007-201? Washington, University of Washington, Milliman Lecture, May 19 http://www.econ.washington.edu/news/millimansl.pdf

Macaulay, Frederick R. 1938. Some theoretical problems suggested by the movement of interest rates, bond yields and stock prices in the United States since 1856. New York, National Bureau of Economic Research http://papers.nber.org/books/maca38-1

MacFarlane, Helen and Paul Mortimer-Lee. 1994. Inflation over 300 years. Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, May 1994, 156-162.

McGrattan, Ellen R. 2010. Capital taxation during the US Great Depression. Minneapolis, MN, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, Working Paper 670, Oct 2010 http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/wp/wp670.pdf

Mann, Henry B. 1945. Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13 (3, Jul): 245-259.

Markowitz, Harry. 1952. Portfolio selection. Journal of Finance 7 (1, Mar): 77-91.

McCallum, Bennett. 1999. Issues in the design of monetary policy rules. In John B. Taylor and Michael Woodford, eds. Handbook of Macroeconomics Volume 1A. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland.

McKinnon, Ronald I. 1973. Money and Capital in Economic Development. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.

McKinnon, Ronald I. 2011Dec18. Oh, for Alexander Hamilton to save Europe! Financial Times, Dec 18 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/811611d6-273a-11e1-b7ec-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1gzoHXOj6

McKinnon, Ronald I. 2013Oct27. Tapering without tears—how to end QE3. Wall Street Journal, Oct 27.

McKinsey & Co. 2007. Sustaining New York and the US’ global financial services leadership. New York: McKinsey & Co.

Meltzer, Allan H. 2005. Origins of the Great Inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 (2, Part 2, Mar/Apr): 145-72.

Meltzer, Allan H. 2004. A history of the federal reserve, Volume 1: 1913-1951. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Meltzer, Allan H. 2010a. A history of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2, Book 1, 1951-1969. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Meltzer, Allan H. 2010b. A history of the Federal Reserve, Volume 2, Book 2, 1970-1986. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Metzler, Lloyd A. The nature and stability of inventory cycles. 1941. Review of Economics and Statistics 23 (3, Aug): 113-29.

Merton, Robert C. 1973. Theory of rational option pricing. Bell Journal of Economics and Management Science 4 (1, Spring): 141-83.

Merton, Robert C. 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29 (2, May): 449-70.

Merton, Robert C. 1998. Applications of option-pricing theory: twenty-five years later. American Economic Review 88 (3): 323-49.

Meulendyke, Ann-Marie. 1998. U.S. monetary policy and financial markets. New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York http://www.newyorkfed.org/education/addpub/monpol/

Modigliani, Franco and Richard Sutch. 1966. Innovations in interest rate policy. American Economic Review 56 (1/2, Mar): 178-97.

Modigliani, Franco and Richard Sutch. 1967. Debt management and the term structure of interest rates: an empirical analysis of recent experience. Journal of Political Economy 75 (4, Aug): 569-89.

Mossin, Jan. 1966. 1966. Equilibrium in a capital asset market. Econometrica 34 (4, Oct): 768-83.

Mundell, Robert A. 1963. Capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science 29 (4): 475-85.

North, Douglass C. 1994. Economic performance through time. American Economic Review 84 (3): 359-68.

North, Douglass C. and Barry R. Weingast. 1989. Constitutions and commitments: the evolution of institutional governing public choice in seventeenth-century England. Journal of Economic History 49 (4): 803-32.

Nurkse, Ragnar. 1944. International currency experience: lessons of the interwar experience. Geneva, League of Nations.

O’Donoghue, Jim and Louise Goulding, 2004. Consumer Price Inflation since 1750. UK Office for National Statistics Economic Trends 604, Mar 2004, 38-46.

Pelaez, Carlos A. 2008. The reform of Alexander Hamilton. Philadelphia, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Unpublished manuscript.

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2005. International Financial Architecture. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. http://us.macmillan.com/QuickSearchResults.aspx?search=pelaez%2C+carlos&ctl00%24ctl00%24cphContent%24ucAdvSearch%24imgGo.x=26&ctl00%24ctl00%24cphContent%24ucAdvSearch%24imgGo.y=14 http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2007. The Global Recession Risk. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2008a. Globalization and the State: Vol. I. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2008b. Globalization and the State: Vol. II. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2008c. Government Intervention in Globalization. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2009a. Financial Regulation after the Global Recession. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos M. and Carlos A. Pelaez. 2009b. Regulation of Banks and Finance. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.http://www.amazon.com/Carlos-Manuel-Pel%C3%A1ez/e/B001HCUT10

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1968. The State, the Great Depression and the Industrialization of Brazi. New York, PhD Dissertation, Columbia University in the City of New York, Jun.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1968b. A Balança Comercial, a Grande Depressão e a Industrialização Brasileira. Revista Brasileira de Economia 22 (1, Jan/Mar): 15-47.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel 1971. Análise econômica do programa brasileiro de sustentação do café—1906-1945. Revista Brasileira de Economia 25 (4, Out/Dez): 5-211.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1972. História da Industrialização Brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: APEC.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel, ed. 1973. Essays on Coffee and Economic Development. Rio de Janeiro, IBC, 1973. Portuguese edition: Ensaios sobre Café e Desenvolvimento Econômico. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto Brasileiro do Café, 1973.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1974. Long-run Monetary Behavior and Institutions in an Underdeveloped Economy, 1800-1971. Copenhaguen, Paper Presented at the VI International Congress on Economic History, Session on Monetary Inflation in Historical Perspective, International Economic History Association, Aug 22.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1975. The Establishment of Banking Institutions in a Backward Economy: Brazil, 1800-1851. Business History Review 49 (4, Winter): 446-472.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1976a. The Theory and Reality of Imperialism in the Coffee Economy of Nineteenth-Century Brazil. Economic History Review 29, Second Series (May): 276-294.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1976b. A Comparison of Long-term Monetary Behavior and Institutions in Brazil, Europe and the United States. Journal of European Economic History 5 (2, Fall): 439-450.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1977. World War I and the Economy of Brazil: Some Evidence from Monetary Statistics. Journal of Interdisciplinary History (7, Apr): 683-680.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1979. História Econômica do Brasil: Um Elo entre a Teoria e a Realidade Econômica. São Paulo: Editora Atlas.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1986. O Cruzado e o Austral: Análise das Reformas Monetárias do Brasil e da Argentina. São Paulo: Editora Atlas.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel. 1987. Economia Brasileira Contemporânea: Origens e Conjuntura Atual. São Paulo: Editora Atlas.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel and Wilson Suzigan. 1978. Economia Monetária: Teoria, Política e Evidência Empírica. São Paulo, Atlas.

Pelaez, Carlos Manuel and Wilson Suzigan. 1981. História Monetária do Brasil Segunda Edição. Coleção Temas Brasileiros. Brasília: Universidade de Brasília.

Phelps, Edmund S. 1968. Money-wage dynamics and labor market equilibrium. Journal of Political Economy 76 (4, 2, Jul-Aug): 678-711.

Pinto, Edward J. 2008. Statement. Washington, DC, US House of Representatives, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Dec 9.

Pozsar, Zoltan, Adrian Tobias, Adam Ashcraft and Hayley Boesky. 2012RFeb. Shadow banking. New York: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Report No. 458, Revised Feb 2012 http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr458.pdf

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth Rogoff. 2010GTD. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review 100 (2): 1-9.

Rajan, Raghuram G. 2004. Remarks. Sydney, Australia, Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, Dec 15.

Rajan, Raghuram G. 2005. Has financial development made the world riskier? Jackson Hole, WY, Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/sympos/2005/PDF/Rajan2005.pdf

Rajan, Raghuram G. 2012May8. Stop beating up on Ben Bernanke. Financial Times, May 8 http://blogs.ft.com/the-a-list/2012/05/08/stop-beating-up-on-ben-bernanke/

Rajan, Raghuram G. 2012FA. The true lessons of the recession: the West can’t borrow and spend its way to recovery. Foreign Affairs 91 (May/June, 3): 69-79.

Rajan, Raghuram G. and Luigi Zingales. 2001. The influence of the financial revolution on the nature of the firm. American Economic Review 91 (2): 206-11.

Robinson, Joan. 1947. Beggar-my-neighbour remedies for unemployment. In Joan Robinson, Essays in the Theory of Employment, Oxford, Basil Blackwell, 1947.

Reinhart, Carmen M. 2010CB. This time is different chartbook: country histories on debt, default and financial crises. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 15815, Mar http://www.nber.org/papers/w15815

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Vincent R. Reinhart. 2011Feb. Pride goes before a fall: Federal Reserve policy and asset markets. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 16815, Feb http://www.nber.org/papers/w16815

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Vincent R. Reinhart. 2010AF. After the fall. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 16634, Sep http://www.nber.org/papers/w16334

Reinhart Carmen M., Kenneth S. Rogoff and Miguel A. Savastano. 2003. Debt intolerance. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (2003): 1-74.

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2008TDPV. This time is different: a panoramic view of eight centuries of financial crises. Cambridge, MA, WP 13882, Mar http://www.nber.org/papers/w13882

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2009AFC. The aftermath of financial crises. Cambridge, MA, WP 14656, Jan http://www.nber.org/papers/w14656

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth Rogoff. 2009TD. This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton: Princeton University Press http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165/ref=pd_sim_b_6

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth Rogoff. 2010GTD. Growth in a time of debt. American Economic Review 100 (2): 1-9.

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2010FCDC. From financial crash to debt crisis. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 15795, Mar http://www.nber.org/papers/w15795 forthcoming in American Economic Review http://www.aeaweb.org/forthcoming/output/acceptedAER.php

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011CEPR. A decade of debt. Washington, DC, Center for Economic and Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 8310, Apr. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 16827, Feb http://www.nber.org/papers/w16827

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011EJ. The forgotten history of domestic debt. Economic Journal 121 (May): 319-350.

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2011Jul14. Debt endangers growth. Bloomberg, Jul14 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-14/too-much-debt-means-economy-can-t-grow-commentary-by-reinhart-and-rogoff.html

Reinhart, Carmen M. and M. Belen Sbrancia. 2011LD. The liquidation of government debt. Cambridge, MA, NBER WP 16893, Mar http://www.nber.org/papers/w16893

Reinhart, Carmen M. and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2012Oct14. This time is different, again? The United States five years after the onset of subprime. Cambridge, MA, Harvard University, Oct 14 http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Is_US_Different_RR_3.pdf

Rogoff, Kenneth. 2002MF. Dornbusch’s overshooting model after twenty-five years. Washington, DC, IMF, Mundell-Fleming Lecture http://www.imf.org/external/np/speeches/2001/kr/112901.pdf

Roll, Richard. 1977. A critique of the asset pricing theory’s tests. Part I: on past and potential testability of the theory. Journal of Financial Economics 4 (2, Mar): 129-76.

Romer, Christina D. 1992. What ended the Great Depression? Journal of Economic History 52 (4, Dec): 757-84.

Romer, Christina D. 2009. Lessons from the New Deal. Washington DC, Testimony of Christina D. Romer, Chair, President’s Council of Economic Advisers, Before the Economic Policy Subcommittee, Senate Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, Mar 31 http://www.whitehouse.gov/assets/documents/Testimony_of_Christina_D.pdf

Romer, Christina D. and David H. Romer. 2004. A new measure of monetary shocks: derivation and implications. American Economic Review 94 (4, Sep): 1055-84.

Rubin, Robert. 2014Jan8. Sound government finances will promote recovery. Financial Times, Jan 8.

Samuelson, Paul A. 1965. Proof that properly anticipated stock prices fluctuate randomly. Industrial Management Review 6 (2): 41-9.

Samuelson, Paul A. 1974. Lessons from the current economic expansion. American Economic Review 64 (2, May): 75-7.

Sargent, Thomas J. 1983. The end of four big inflations. In Robert E. Hall, ed. Inflation: causes and effects. Chicago: Chicago University Press.

Sargent, Thomas J. and Neil Wallace. 1973. The stability of models of money and growth with perfect foresight. Econometrica 41 (6, Nov): 1043-8.

Sargent, Thomas J. and Neil Wallace. 1981. Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review 5 (3, Fall): 1-17.

Sargent, Thomas J. and William L. Silber. 2012Mar20. The challenges of the Fed’s bid for transparency. Financial Times, Mar 20 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/778eb1ce-7288-11e1-9c23-00144feab49a.html#axzz1pexRlsiQ

Seers, Dudley. 1962. A theory of inflation and growth in under-developed economies based on the experience of Latin America. Oxford Economic Papers New Series 14 (Jun, 2): 173-95.

Seligman, Edwin R. A. 1908. The crisis of 1907 in the light of history. Introduction to The currency problem and the present financial situation. New York: Columbia University Press http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/publications/books/currencyprob/1908currencyproblem_introduction.pdf

Sharpe, William F. 1964. Capital asset prices: a theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. Journal of Finance 19 (3, Sep): 425-42.

Shaw, Edward S. 1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York: Oxford University Press.

Shultz, George P., Michael J. Boskin, John F. Cogan, Allan H. Meltzer and John B. Taylor. 2012. The magnitude of the mess we’re in. Wall Street Journal, Sep 16, 2012 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303561504577497442109193610.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

Simons, Henry C. 1936. Rules versus authorities in monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 44 (1, Feb): 1-30.

Simons, Henry C. 1942. Hansen on fiscal policy. Journal of Political Economy 50 (2, Apr): 161-96.

Simons, Henry C. 1948. Economic Policy for a free society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Sims, Christopher A. 1972. Money, income and causality. American Economic Review 62 (4, Sep): 540-52.

Singer, Hans W. 1950. The distribution of gains between investing and borrowing countries. American Economic Review 40 (2, May): 473-485.

Standard & Poor’s Rating Services (S&PRS). 2012Jan13. Standard & Poor’s takes various rating actions on 16 eurozone sovereign governments. Frankfurt, S&P Rating Services, Jan 13 http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML&assetID=1245327294763

Standard & Poor’s Rating Services (S&PRS). 2012Jan16. European Financial Stability Facility long-term Ratings Cut to ‘AA+’; short-term ratings affirmed; outlook developing. Frankfurt, S&P Rating Services, Jan 16 http://www.standardandpoors.com/ratings/articles/en/us/?articleType=HTML&assetID=1245327337060

Stein, Stanley J. and Barbara H. Stein. 1970. The colonial heritage of Latin America. New York and London: Oxford University Press.

Summerhill, Jr., William R. 2007SC. Sovereign credibility with financial underdevelopment. Palo Alto, CA, Hoover Seminar on Collective Choice, Mar 6.

Summerhill, Jr., William R. 2007IR. Inglorious revolution: political institutions, sovereign debt and financial underdevelopment in Imperial Brazil. Los Angeles, CA, UCLA, Book Manuscript.

Summers, Lawrence H. 2013Nov8. Presentation. Washington, DC, IMF Fourteenth Annual Research Conference in Honor of Stanley Fischer, IMF, Nov 8 http://larrysummers.com/imf-fourteenth-annual-research-conference-in-honor-of-stanley-fischer/

Svensson, Lars E. 2003. What is wrong with Taylor rules? Using judgment in monetary policy through targeting rules. Journal of Economic Literature 41 (2 Jun): 426–77.

Svensson, Lars E. 2003LT. Escaping from a liquidity trap and deflation: the foolproof way and others. Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (4, Autumn): 145-66.

Swanson, Eric T. 2011Mar. Let’s twist again: a high-frequency event-study analysis of operation twist and its implication for QE2. Forthcoming in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/Programs/ES/BPEA/2011_spring_bpea_papers/2011_spring_bpea_conference_swanson.pdf

Taylor, Alan M. 2012. The great leveraging. Basel, Switzerland, Bank for International Settlements, Jul http://www.bis.org/events/conf120621/taylor.pdf

Taylor, John B. 1993. Discretion versus policy rules in practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 39 (1993): 195-214.

Taylor, John B. 1997. Comment. In Christina Romer and David Romer, eds. Reducing inflation: motivation and strategy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Taylor, John B. 1998LB. Monetary policy and the long boom. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (Nov-Dec): 3-11.

Taylor, John B. 1999. An historical analysis of monetary policy rules. In John B. Taylor, ed. Monetary policy rules. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

Taylor, John B. 2007JH. Housing and monetary policy. Jackson Hole, WY, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Symposium http://www.kansascityfed.org/PUBLICAT/SYMPOS/2007/PDF/Taylor_0415.pdf

Taylor, John B. 2008Nov. The financial crisis and the policy responses: an empirical analysis of what went wrong. Bank of Canada, Nov 2008 http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/Onlinepaperscombinedbyyear/2008/The_Financial_Crisis_and_the_Policy_Responses_An_Empirical_Analysis_of_What_Went_Wrong.pdf

Taylor, John B. 2009. Getting off track: how government actions and interventions caused, prolonged, and worsened the financial crisis. Stanford, CA, Hoover Institution Press.

Taylor, John B. 2012FP. First principles: five keys to restoring America’s prosperity. New York: W. W. Norton.

Taylor, John B. 2012Mar27. Testimony before the Joint Economic Committee at the Hearing on “Monetary Policy Going Forward: Why a Sound Dollar Boosts Growth and Employment.” Washington, DC, JEC, Mar 27 http://jec.senate.gov/republicans/public/?a=Files.Serve&File_id=f002b5f0-9fc0-45f9-9d53-e563137c040e

Taylor, John B. 2012Mar28. The dangers of an interventionist Fed. Wall Street Journal, Mar 28 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303816504577307403971824094.html?mod=WSJ_hps_sections_opinion

Taylor, John B. 2012JMCB. Monetary policy rules work and discretion doesn’t: a tale of two eras. Palo Alto, CA, Stanford University, Mar 2012, forthcoming in the Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2012 http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/JMCB%20lecture.pdf

Taylor, John B. 2012Oct25. An unusually weak recovery as usually defined. Economics One, A Blog by John B. Taylor, Oct 25 http://www.johnbtaylorsblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/an-unusually-weak-recovery-as-usually.html

Taylor, John B. 2013Oct28. Economic failure causes political polarization. Wall Street Journal, Oct 28.

Taylor, John B. 2014Jan01. The economic Hokum of “Secular Stagnation.” Wall Street Journal, Jan 1 http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304858104579263953449606842?KEYWORDS=john+b+taylor

Taylor, John B. 2014Jan3. The role of policy in the Great Recession and the weak recovery. Palo Alto, Stanford University, prepared for Allied Social Science Associations, Recessions and Recoveries, American Economic Association, Philadelphia, Jan 3 http://www.aeaweb.org/aea/2014conference/program/preliminary.php?search_string=taylor&search_type=last_name&association=&jel_class=&search=Search#search_box

Taylor, John B. and John C. Williams. 2010. Simple and robust rules for monetary policy. In Benjamin Friedman and Michael Woodford, eds. Handbook of monetary economics Volume 3B. Amsterdam: Elsevier North Holland.

Temin, Peter. 1997. Two views of the British industrial revolution. Journal of Economic History 57 (1, Mar): 63-82.

Tobias, Adrian and Adam B. Aschraft. 2012Apr. Shawdow banking regulation. New York, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Staff Report No. 559, Apr http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr559.pdf

Tobin, James. 1958. Liquidity preference as behavior toward risk. Review of Economic Studies 26 (Feb): 65-86.

Tobin, James. 1961. Money, capital, and other stores of value. American Economic Review 51 (2, May): 26-37.

Tobin, James. 1969. A general equilibrium approach to monetary theory. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 1 (1, Feb): 15-29.

Tobin, James. 1974. Monetary policy in 1974 and beyond. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (1974): 219-32.

Treynor, Jack L. 1962. Toward a theory of market value of risky assets, unpublished manuscript, 1962, provided by Craig W. French, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=628187

Vayanos, Dimitri and Jean-Luc Vila. 2009. A preferred-habitat model of the term structure of interest rates. New Orleans, AFA Meetings Paper, Nov 1. http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=971439

Vilela Luz, Nícia. 1961. A luta pela industrialização do Brasil (1808 a 1930). São Paulo: Difusão Europeia do Livro.

Vilela Luz, Nicia and Carlos Manuel Peláez. 1972. Economia e história: o encontro dos dois campos de conhecimento. Revista Brasileira de Economia 26 (3, Jul/Sep): 273-301.

Villela, Annibal V. and Wilson Suzigan. 1973. Política do governo e crescimento da economia brasileira. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA/INPES.

Viner, Jacob. 1937. Studies in the theory of international trade. New York: Harper and Brothers, 1965. Available at http://oll.libertyfund.org/?option=com_staticxt&staticfile=show.php%3Ftitle=1414

Wallis, W. Allen and Geoffrey H. Moore. 1941. A significance test for time series and other ordered observations. New York: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1941.

Williams, David, C.A. E. Goodhart and D. H. Gowland. 1976. Money, income and causality: the UK experience. American Economic Review 66 (3, Jun): 417-23.

Winston, Clifford. 2006. Government failure versus market failure. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute/Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, Brookings Institution Press.

Wolf, Martin. 2012Oct23. A slow convalescence under Obama. Financial Times, Oct 23, 2012 http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/791fc13a-1c57-11e2-a63b-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2AotsUk1q

Wriston, Walter B. 1982. Banking against disaster. New York Times, Sep 14.

Yellen, Janet L. 2011AS. The Federal’s Reserve’s asset purchase program. Denver, Colorado, Allied Social Science Association Annual Meeting, Jan 8 http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20110108a.pdf

Yellen, Janet L. 2013Nov14. Testimony. Washington, DC. Committee on Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs, US Senate, Nov 14 http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/yellen20131114a.htm

Zingales, Luigi. 2000. In search of new foundations. Journal of Finance 55 (4, Aug): 1623-54.

CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Followers

Blog Archive

About Me

Monday, January 27, 2014

No comments:

Post a Comment