CMP Associates Regulation Blog

Chart I-1 shows the annual level of total nonfarm hiring (HNF) that collapsed during the global recession after 2007 in contrast with milder decline in the shallow recession of 2001. Nonfarm hiring has not recovered, remaining at a depressed level. The civilian noninstitutional population or those in condition to work increased from 228.815 million in 2006 to 247.947 million in 2014 or by 19.132 million. Hiring has not recovered precession levels while needs of hiring multiplied because of growth of population by more than 19 million.

Chart I-1, US, Level Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual, 2001-2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-2 shows the ratio or rate of nonfarm hiring to employment (RNF) that also fell much more in the recession of 2007 to 2009 than in the shallow recession of 2001. Recovery is weak in the current environment of cyclical slow growth.

Chart I-2, US, Rate Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual, 2001-2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Yearly percentage changes of total nonfarm hiring (HNF) are provided in Table I-2. There were much milder declines in 2002 of 6.6 percent and 2.6 percent in 2003 followed by strong rebounds of 5.8 percent in 2004 and 4.5 percent in 2005. In contrast, the contractions of nonfarm hiring in the recession after 2007 were much sharper in percentage points: 1.9 in 2007, 11.8 in 2008 and 16.1 percent in 2009. On a yearly basis, nonfarm hiring grew 6.1 percent in 2010 relative to 2009, 3.2 percent in 2011, 4.1 percent in 2012 and 3.6 percent in 2013. Nonfarm hiring grew 8.1 percent in 2014. The relatively large length of 24 quarters of the current expansion reduces the likelihood of significant recovery of hiring levels in the United States because lower rates of growth and hiring in the final phase of expansions.

Table I-2, US, Annual Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), Annual Percentage Change, 2002-2014

Year	Annual ∆%
2002	-6.6
2003	-2.6
2004	5.8
2005	4.5
2006	0.6
2007	-1.9
2008	-11.8
2009	-16.1
2010	6.1
2011	3.2
2012	4.1
2013	3.6
2014	8.1

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total private hiring (HP) 12-month percentage changes of annual data are provided in Chart I-4. There has been sharp contraction of total private hiring in the US and only milder recovery from 2010 to 2014.

Chart I-4, US, Total Nonfarm Hiring Level, Annual, ∆%, 2001-2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-5 plots the rate of total private hiring relative to employment (RHP). The rate collapsed during the global recession after 2007 with insufficient recovery.

Chart I-5, US, Total Private Hiring, Annual, 2001-2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-5A plots the rate of total private hiring relative to employment (RHP). The rate collapsed during the global recession after 2007 with insufficient recovery.

Chart I-5A, US, Rate Total Private Hiring Level, Annual, 2001-2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total nonfarm hiring (HNF), total private hiring (HP) and their respective rates are provided for the month of May in the years from 2001 to 2015 in Table I-3. Hiring numbers are in thousands. There is recovery in HNF from 4264 thousand (or 4.3 million) in Jun 2009 to 4703 thousand in 2010, 4962 thousand in Jun 2011, 5013 thousand in Jun 2012, 5079 thousand in Jun 2013, 5510 thousand in Jun 2014 and 5939 thousand in Jun 2015 for cumulative gain of 39.3 percent at average rate of 5.7 percent per year. HP rose from 3925 thousand in Jun 2009 to 4332 thousand in Jun 2010, 4601 thousand in Jun 2011, 4626 thousand in Jun 2012, 4738 thousand in Jun 2013, 5110 thousand in Jun 2014 and 5501 thousand in Jun 2015 for cumulative gain of 40.2 percent at the average yearly rate of 5.8 percent. HNF has fallen from 6045 thousand in Jun 2006 to 5939 thousand in Jun 2015 or by 1.8 percent. HP has fallen from 5567 thousand in Jun 2006 to 5501 thousand in Jun 2015 or by 1.2 percent. The civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working, rose from 228.671 million in Jun 2006 to 250.663 million in Jun 2015, by 21.992 million or 9.6 percent. There is often ignored ugly fact that hiring fell by around 1.2 percent while population available for working increased around 9.6 percent. The civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or individuals in condition to work, rose from 228.815 million in 2006 to 247.947 million in 2014 or by 19.132 million and the civilian labor force from 151.428 million in 2006 to 155.922 million in 2014 or by 4.494 million (http://www.bls.gov/data/). The number of nonfarm hires in the US fell from 63.327 million in 2006 to 58.657 million in 2014 or by 4.670 million and the number of private hires fell from 59.128 million in 2006 to 55.048 million in 2014 or by 4.080 million (http://www.bls.gov/jlt/). Private hiring of 59.128 million in 2006 was equivalent to 25.8 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 228.815, or those in condition of working, falling to 55.048 million in 2014 or 22.2 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 247.947 million in 2014. The percentage of hiring in civilian noninstitutional population of 25.8 percent in 2006 would correspond to 63.970 million of hiring in 2014, which would be 8.922 million higher than actual 55.048 million in 2014. Cyclical slow growth over the entire business cycle from IVQ2007 to the present in comparison with earlier cycles and long-term trend (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html) explains the fact that there are many million fewer hires in the US than before the global recession. The labor market continues to be fractured, failing to provide an opportunity to exit from unemployment/underemployment or to find an opportunity for advancement away from declining inflation-adjusted earnings.

Table I-3, US, Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF) and Total Private Hiring (HP) in the US in

Thousands and in Percentage of Total Employment Not Seasonally Adjusted

	HNF	Rate RNF	HP	Rate HP
2001 Jun	5762	4.3	5274	4.7
2002 Jun	5468	4.2	5052	4.6
2003 Jun	5440	4.1	5039	4.6
2004 Jun	5678	4.3	5289	4.8
2005 Jun	6069	4.5	5675	5.0
2006 Jun	6045	4.4	5567	4.8
2007 Jun	5992	4.3	5509	4.7
2008 Jun	5513	4.0	5109	4.4
2009 Jun	4264	3.2	3925	3.6
2010 Jun	4703	3.6	4332	4.0
2011 Jun	4962	3.7	4601	4.2
2012 Jun	5013	3.7	4626	4.1
2013 Jun	5079	3.7	4738	4.1
2014 Jun	5510	3.9	5110	4.3
2015 Jun	5939	4.2	5501	4.5

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-6 provides total nonfarm hiring on a monthly basis from 2001 to 2015. Nonfarm hiring rebounded in early 2010 but then fell and stabilized at a lower level than the early peak not-seasonally adjusted (NSA) of 4830 in May 2010 until it surpassed it with 4962 in Jun 2011 but declined to 3114 in Dec 2012. Nonfarm hiring fell to 3025 in Dec 2011 from 3809 in Nov 2011 and to revised 3626 in Feb 2012, increasing to 4195 in Mar 2012, 3114 in Dec 2012 and 4232 in Jan 2013 and declining to 3828 in Feb 2014. Nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted increased to 4273 in Nov 2013 and 3263 in Dec 2013. Nonfarm hires reached 3750 in Dec 2014 and 5939 in Jun 2015. Chart I-6 provides seasonally adjusted (SA) monthly data. The number of seasonally-adjusted hires in Oct 2011 was 4217 thousand, increasing to revised 4451 thousand in Feb 2012, or 5.5 percent, moving to 4361 in Dec 2012 for cumulative increase of 2.5 percent from 4254 in Dec 2011 and 4545 in Dec 2013 for increase of 4.2 percent relative to 4361 in Dec 2012. The number of hires not seasonally adjusted was 4962 in Jun 2011, falling to 3025 in Dec 2011 but increasing to 4135 in Jan 2012 and declining to 3114 in Dec 2012. The number of nonfarm hiring not seasonally adjusted fell by 39.0 percent from 4962 in Jun 2011 to 3025 in Dec 2011 and fell 37.9 percent from 5013 in Jun 2012 to 3114 in Dec 2012 in a yearly-repeated seasonal pattern. The number of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 5079 in Jun 2013 to 3263 in Dec 2013, or decline of 35.8 percent, showing strong seasonality. The number of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 5459 in Jul 2014 to 3750 in Dec 2014 or 31.3 percent.

Chart I-6, US, Total Nonfarm Hiring (HNF), 2001-2015 Month SA

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Similar behavior occurs in the rate of nonfarm hiring in Chart I-7. Recovery in early 2010 was followed by decline and stabilization at a lower level but with stability in monthly SA estimates of 3.2 in Aug 2011 to 3.2 in Jan 2012, increasing to 3.3 in May 2012 and falling to 3.2 in Jun 2012. The rate stabilized at 3.2 in Jul 2012, increasing to 3.3 in Aug 2012 but falling to 3.2 in Dec 2012 and 3.3 in Dec 2013. The rate not seasonally adjusted fell from 3.7 in Jun 2011 to 2.3 in Dec 2011, climbing to 3.7 in Jun 2012 but falling to 2.3 in Dec 2012. The rate of nonfarm hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 3.7 in Jun 2013 to 2.4 in Dec 2013. The NSA rate of nonfarm hiring fell from 3.9 in Jun 2014 to 2.7 in Dec 2014. Rates of nonfarm hiring NSA were in the range of 2.7 (Dec) to 4.4 (Jun) in 2006. The rate of nonfarm hiring SA stood at 3.7 in Jun 2015 and at 4.2 NSA.

Chart I-7, US, Rate Total Nonfarm Hiring, Month SA 2001-2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

There is only milder improvement in total private hiring shown in Chart I-8. Hiring private (HP) rose in 2010 with stability and renewed increase in 2011 followed by almost stationary series in 2012. The number of private hiring seasonally adjusted fell from 4056 thousand in Sep 2011 to 3961 in Dec 2011 or by 2.3 percent, decreasing to 4018 in Jan 2012 or decline by 0.9 percent relative to the level in Sep 2011. Private hiring fell to 3947 in Sep 2012 or lower by 2.7 percent relative to Sep 2011, moving to 4073 in Dec 2012 for increase of 1.4 percent relative to 4018 in Jan 2012. The number of private hiring not seasonally adjusted fell from 4601 in Jun 2011 to 2844 in Dec 2011 or by 38.2 percent, reaching 3874 in Jan 2012 or decline of 15.8 percent relative to Jun 2011 and moving to 2935 in Dec 2012 or 36.6 percent lower relative to 4626 in Jun 2012. Hires not seasonally adjusted fell from 4738 in Jun 2013 to 3090 in Dec 2013. The level of private hiring NSA fell from 5110 in Jun 2014 to 3549 in Dec 2014 or 30.5 percent. Companies reduce hiring in the latter part of the year that explains the high seasonality in year-end employment data. For example, NSA private hiring fell from 5567 in Jun 2006 to 3568 in Dec 2006 or by 35.9 percent. Private hiring NSA data are useful in showing the huge declines from the period before the global recession. In Aug 2006, private hiring NSA was 5115, declining to 4182 in Aug 2011 or by 18.2 percent and to 4392 in Aug 2012 or lower by 14.1 percent relative to Aug 2006. Private hiring NSA fell from 5501 in Jul 2006 to 5139 in Jul 2014 or 6.6 percent. Private hiring fell from 3568 in Dec 2006 to 3090 in Dec 2013 or 13.4 percent and to 3549 in Dec 2014 or decline of 0.5 percent. The conclusion is that private hiring in the US is around 3 percent below the hiring before the global recession while the noninstitutional population of the United States has grown from 228.815 million in 2006 to 247.947 million in 2014, by 19.132 million or 8.4 percent. Private hiring of 59.128 million in 2006 was equivalent to 25.8 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 228.815, or those in condition of working, falling to 55.048 million in 2014 or 22.2 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population of 247.947 million in 2014. The percentage of hiring in civilian noninstitutional population of 25.8 percent in 2006 would correspond to 63.970 million of hiring in 2014, which would be 8.922 million higher than actual 55.048 million in 2014. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent.

Chart I-8, US, Total Private Hiring Month SA 2001-2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-9 shows similar behavior in the rate of private hiring. The rate in 2011 in monthly SA data did not rise significantly above the peak in 2010. The rate seasonally adjusted fell from 3.7 in Sep 2011 to 3.6 in Dec 2011 and reached 3.6 in Dec 2012 and 3.7 in Dec 2013. The rate not seasonally adjusted (NSA) fell from 3.7 in Sep 2011 to 2.6 in Dec 2011, increasing to 3.8 in Oct 2012 but falling to 2.6 in Dec 2012 and 3.4 in Mar 2013. The NSA rate of private hiring fell from 4.8 in Jul 2006 to 3.4 in Aug 2009 but recovery was insufficient to only 3.9 in Aug 2012, 2.6 in Dec 2012 and 2.7 in Dec 2013. The NSA rate increased to 4.5 in Jun 2015.

Chart I-9, US, Rate Total Private Hiring Month SA 2001-2015

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The JOLTS report of the Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides total nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB), TNF JOB rate and TNF LD (layoffs and discharges) shown in Table I-4 for the month of Jun from 2001 to 2015. The final column provides annual TNF LD for the years from 2001 to 2014. Nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB) increased from a peak of 4580 in Jun 2007 to 5250 in Jun 2015 or by 14.6 percent while the rate increased from 3.2 to 3.5. This was mediocre performance because the civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working, rose from 228.671 million in Jun 2006 to 250.663 million in Jun 2015, by 21.992 million or 9.6 percent. Nonfarm layoffs and discharges (TNF LD) rose from 1604 in Jun 2006 to 2001 in Jun 2009 or by 24.8 percent. The annual data show layoffs and discharges rising from 20.9 million in 2006 to 26.4 million in 2009 or by 26.3 percent. Business pruned payroll jobs to survive the global recession but there has not been hiring because of the low rate of GDP growth. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions.

Table I-4, US, Total Nonfarm Job Openings and Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Thousands NSA

	TNF JOB	TNF JOB Rate	TNF LD	TNF LD Annual
Jun 2001	4155	3.0	1774	24138
Jun 2002	3257	2.4	1716	22706
Jun 2003	3276	2.4	1987	23490
Jun 2004	3298	2.4	1759	22668
Jun 2005	3911	2.8	1841	22243
Jun 2006	4260	3.0	1604	20896
Jun 2007	4580	3.2	1735	21958
Jun 2008	3638	2.6	1874	24028
Jun 2009	2372	1.8	2001	26444
Jun 2010	2705	2.0	1934	21827
Jun 2011	3175	2.3	1770	20801
Jun 2012	3758	2.7	1728	20872
Jun 2013	3860	2.7	1610	19889
Jun 2014	4717	3.3	1640	20418
Jun 2015	5250	3.5	1709

Notes: TNF JOB: Total Nonfarm Job Openings; LD: Layoffs and Discharges

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-10 shows monthly job openings rising from the trough in 2009 to a high in the beginning of 2010. Job openings then stabilized into 2011 but have surpassed the peak of 3097 seasonally adjusted in Apr 2010 with 3640 seasonally adjusted in Dec 2012, which is higher by 17.5 percent relative to Apr 2010 but lower by 2.7 percent relative to 3741 in Nov 2012 and lower by 5.1 percent than 3837 in Mar 2012. Nonfarm job openings increased from 3640 in Dec 2012 to 3977 in Dec 2013 or by 9.3 percent and to 4877 in 2014 or 22.6 percent relative to 2013. The high of job openings not seasonally adjusted was 3428 in Apr 2010 that was surpassed by 3671 in Jul 2011, increasing to 3942 in Oct 2012 but declining to 3189 in Dec 2012 and increasing to 3507 in Dec 2013. The level of job opening NSA increased to 5250 in Jun 2015. The level of job openings not seasonally adjusted fell to 3189 in Dec 2012 or by 21.3 percent relative to 3988 in Apr 2012. There is here again the strong seasonality of year-end labor data. Job openings fell from 4215 in Apr 2013 to 3507 in Dec 2013 and from 4816 in Apr 2014 to 4373 in Dec 2014, showing strong seasonal effects. Nonfarm job openings (TNF JOB) increased from a peak of 4580 in Jun 2007 to 5250 in Jun 2015 or by 14.6 percent while the rate increased from 3.2 to 3.5. This was mediocre performance because the civilian noninstitutional population of the US, or those in condition of working, rose from 228.671 million in Jun 2006 to 250.663 million in Jun 2015, by 21.992 million or 9.6 percent. Nonfarm layoffs and discharges (TNF LD) rose from 1604 in Jun 2006 to 2001 in Jun 2009 or by 24.8 percent. The main problem in recovery of the US labor market has been the low rate of GDP growth. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions. US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 24 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2015. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IIQ2015 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp2q15_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by diving GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[$14,745.9/$14,355.6 -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates ( and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2015 would have accumulated to 24.8 percent. GDP in IIQ2015 would be $18,712.5 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,442.1 billion than actual $16,270.4 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 24.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.8 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html). US GDP in IIQ2015 is 13.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,270.4 billion in IIQ2015 or 8.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2015. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 107.6075 in Dec 2007 to 136.6407 in Jul 2015. The actual index NSA in Jul 2015 is 103.7999, which is 24.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.2 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014. Using trend growth of 2.2 percent per year, the index would increase to 126.9147 in Jul 2015. The output of manufacturing at 103.7999 in Jul 2015 is 18.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Chart I-10, US Job Openings, Thousands NSA, 2001-2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The rate of job openings in Chart I-11 shows similar behavior. The rate seasonally adjusted increased from 2.2 in Jan 2011 to 2.6 in Dec 2011, 2.6 in Dec 2012, 2.8 in Dec 2013 and 3.4 in Dec 2014. The rate seasonally adjusted stood at 3.6 in Jun 2015. The rate not seasonally adjusted rose from the high of 2.6 in Apr 2010 to 3.0 in Apr 2013, easing to 2.5 in Dec 2013. The rate of job openings NSA fell from 3.3 in Jul 2007 to 1.6 in Nov-Dec 2009, recovering to 3.5 in Jun 2015.

Chart I-11, US, Rate of Job Openings, NSA, 2001-2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Total separations are shown in Chart I-12. Separations are much lower in 2012-15 than before the global recession but hiring has not recovered.

Chart I-12, US, Total Nonfarm Separations, Month Thousands SA, 2001-2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-13 provides annual total separations. Separations fell sharply during the global recession but hiring has not recovered relative to population growth.

Chart I-13, US, Total Separations, Annual, Thousands, 2001-2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Table I-5 provides total nonfarm total separations from 2001 to 2014. Separations fell from 61.1 million in 2006 to 47.8 million in 2010 or by 13.3 million and 48.2 million in 2011 or by 12.9 million. Total separations increased from 48.2 million in 2011 to 51.8 million in 2013 or by 3.6 million and to 55.5 million in 2014 or by 7.3 million relative to 2011.

Table I-5, US, Total Nonfarm Total Separations, Thousands, 2001-2014

Year	Annual Thousands
2001	64472
2002	59003
2003	56970
2004	58238
2005	60494
2006	61117
2007	60838
2008	58227
2009	51127
2010	47752
2011	48227
2012	50047
2013	51783
2014	55524

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly data of layoffs and discharges reach a peak in early 2009, as shown in Chart I-14. Layoffs and discharges dropped sharply with the recovery of the economy in 2010 and 2011 once employers reduced their job count to what was required for cost reductions and loss of business. Weak rates of growth of GDP (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html) frustrated employment recovery. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent.

Chart I-14, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Monthly Thousands SA, 2001-2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Layoffs and discharges in Chart I-15 rose sharply to a peak in 2009. There was pronounced drop into 2010 and 2011 with mild increase into 2012 and renewed decline into 2013. There is mild increase into 2014.

Chart I-15, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Annual, 2001-2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Annual layoff and discharges are in Table I-6. Layoffs and discharges increased sharply from 20.896 million in 2006 to 26.444 million in 2009 or 26.6 percent. Layoff and discharges fell to 19.889 million in 2013 or 24.8 percent relative to 2009 and increased to 20.418 million in 2014 or 2.7 percent relative to 2013.

Table I-6, US, Total Nonfarm Layoffs and Discharges, Thousands, 2001-2014

Year	Annual Thousands
2001	24138
2002	22706
2003	23490
2004	22668
2005	22243
2006	20896
2007	21958
2008	24028
2009	26444
2010	21827
2011	20801
2012	20872
2013	19889
2014	20418

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

IA2 Labor Underutilization. The Bureau of Labor Statistics also provides alternative measures of labor underutilization shown in Table I-7. The most comprehensive measure is U6 that consists of total unemployed plus total employed part time for economic reasons plus all marginally attached workers as percent of the labor force. U6 not seasonally adjusted has risen from 8.2 percent in 2006 to 10.7 percent in Jul 2015.

Table I-7, US, Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization NSA %

	U1	U2	U3	U4	U5	U6
2015
Jul	2.0	2.7	5.6	6.0	6.7	10.7
Jun	2.1	2.5	5.5	5.8	6.6	10.8
May	2.4	2.5	5.3	5.6	6.4	10.4
Apr	2.4	2.5	5.1	5.5	6.4	10.4
Mar	2.6	2.9	5.6	6.0	6.8	11.0
Feb	2.7	3.0	5.8	6.3	7.1	11.4
Jan	2.7	3.1	6.1	6.5	7.4	12.0
2014
Dec	2.5	2.8	5.4	5.8	6.7	11.1
Nov	2.7	2.7	5.5	5.9	6.8	11.0
Oct	2.7	2.6	5.5	6.0	6.8	11.1
Sep	2.7	2.7	5.7	6.2	7.1	11.3
Aug	2.8	3.0	6.3	6.7	7.5	12.0
Jul	2.8	3.1	6.5	7.0	7.8	12.6
Jun	2.8	3.0	6.3	6.7	7.5	12.4
May	3.1	3.0	6.1	6.5	7.3	11.7
Apr	3.3	3.2	5.9	6.3	7.2	11.8
Mar	3.7	3.7	6.8	7.2	8.1	12.8
Feb	3.6	3.9	7.0	7.5	8.4	13.1
Jan	3.5	4.0	7.0	7.5	8.6	13.5
2013
Dec	3.5	3.5	6.5	7.0	7.9	13.0
Nov	3.7	3.5	6.6	7.1	7.9	12.7
Oct	3.7	3.6	7.0	7.4	8.3	13.2
Sep	3.7	3.5	7.0	7.5	8.4	13.1
Aug	3.7	3.8	7.3	7.9	8.7	13.6
Jul	3.7	3.8	7.7	8.3	9.1	14.3
Jun	3.9	3.8	7.8	8.4	9.3	14.6
May	4.1	3.7	7.3	7.7	8.5	13.4
Apr	4.3	3.9	7.1	7.6	8.5	13.4
Mar	4.3	4.3	7.6	8.1	9.0	13.9
Feb	4.3	4.6	8.1	8.6	9.6	14.9
Jan	4.3	4.9	8.5	9.0	9.9	15.4
2012
Dec	4.2	4.3	7.6	8.3	9.2	14.4
Nov	4.2	3.9	7.4	7.9	8.8	13.9
Oct	4.3	3.9	7.5	8.0	9.0	13.9
Sep	4.2	4.0	7.6	8.0	9.0	14.2
Aug	4.3	4.4	8.2	8.7	9.7	14.6
Jul	4.3	4.6	8.6	9.1	10.0	15.2
Jun	4.5	4.4	8.4	8.9	9.9	15.1
May	4.7	4.3	7.9	8.4	9.3	14.3
Apr	4.8	4.3	7.7	8.3	9.1	14.1
Mar	4.9	4.8	8.4	8.9	9.7	14.8
Feb	4.9	5.1	8.7	9.3	10.2	15.6
Jan	4.9	5.4	8.8	9.4	10.5	16.2
2011
Dec	4.8	5.0	8.3	8.8	9.8	15.2
Nov	4.9	4.7	8.2	8.9	9.7	15.0
Oct	5.0	4.8	8.5	9.1	10.0	15.3
Sep	5.2	5.0	8.8	9.4	10.2	15.7
Aug	5.2	5.1	9.1	9.6	10.6	16.1
Jul	5.2	5.2	9.3	10.0	10.9	16.3
Jun	5.1	5.1	9.3	9.9	10.9	16.4
May	5.5	5.1	8.7	9.2	10.0	15.4
Apr	5.5	5.2	8.7	9.2	10.1	15.5
Mar	5.7	5.8	9.2	9.7	10.6	16.2
Feb	5.6	6.0	9.5	10.1	11.1	16.7
Jan	5.6	6.2	9.8	10.4	11.4	17.3
Dec 2010	5.4	5.9	9.1	9.9	10.7	16.6
Annual
2014	3.0	3.1	6.2	6.6	7.5	12.0
2013	3.9	3.9	7.4	7.9	8.8	13.8
2012	4.5	4.4	8.1	8.6	9.5	14.7
2011	5.3	5.3	8.9	9.5	10.4	15.9
2010	5.7	6.0	9.6	10.3	11.1	16.7
2009	4.7	5.9	9.3	9.7	10.5	16.2
2008	2.1	3.1	5.8	6.1	6.8	10.5
2007	1.5	2.3	4.6	4.9	5.5	8.3
2006	1.5	2.2	4.6	4.9	5.5	8.2
2005	1.8	2.5	5.1	5.4	6.1	8.9
2004	2.1	2.8	5.5	5.8	6.5	9.6
2003	2.3	3.3	6.0	6.3	7.0	10.1
2002	2.0	3.2	5.8	6.0	6.7	9.6
2001	1.2	2.4	4.7	4.9	5.6	8.1
2000	0.9	1.8	4.0	4.2	4.8	7.0

Note: LF: labor force; U1, persons unemployed 15 weeks % LF; U2, job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs %LF; U3, total unemployed % LF; U4, total unemployed plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers; % LF plus discouraged workers; U5, total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other marginally attached workers % LF plus all marginally attached workers; U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons % LF plus all marginally attached workers

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Monthly seasonally adjusted measures of labor underutilization are provided in Table I-8. U6 climbed from 16.1 percent in Aug 2011 to 16.3 percent in Sep 2011 and then fell to 14.5 percent in Mar 2012, reaching 10.4 percent in Jul 2015. Unemployment is an incomplete measure of the stress in US job markets. A different calculation in this blog is provided by using the participation rate in the labor force before the global recession. This calculation shows 24.7 million in job stress of unemployment/underemployment in Jun 2015, not seasonally adjusted, corresponding to 14.8 percent of the labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html).

Table I-8, US, Alternative Measures of Labor Underutilization SA %

	U1	U2	U3	U4	U5	U6
Jul 2015	2.1	2.6	5.3	5.7	6.4	10.4
Jun	2.2	2.6	5.3	5.7	6.4	10.5
May	2.4	2.7	5.5	5.8	6.6	10.8
Apr	2.3	2.6	5.4	5.9	6.7	10.8
Mar	2.4	2.7	5.5	5.9	6.7	10.9
Feb	2.6	2.7	5.5	6.0	6.8	11.0
Jan	2.7	2.7	5.7	6.1	7.0	11.3
Dec 2014	2.6	2.8	5.6	6.0	6.9	11.2
Nov	2.7	2.9	5.8	6.2	7.1	11.4
Oct	2.8	2.8	5.7	6.2	7.1	11.5
Sep	2.8	2.9	5.9	6.3	7.3	11.7
Aug	2.9	3.1	6.1	6.6	7.4	12.0
July	2.9	3.1	6.2	6.6	7.5	12.2
Jun	2.9	3.1	6.1	6.5	7.3	12.0
May	3.1	3.2	6.3	6.7	7.5	12.1
Apr	3.2	3.3	6.2	6.7	7.5	12.3
Mar	3.4	3.5	6.6	7.1	7.9	12.6
Feb	3.5	3.5	6.7	7.1	8.0	12.6
Jan	3.4	3.4	6.6	7.1	8.1	12.7
Dec 2013	3.6	3.5	6.7	7.2	8.1	13.1
Nov	3.7	3.7	7.0	7.4	8.2	13.1
Oct	3.8	4.0	7.2	7.7	8.6	13.7
Sep	3.8	3.8	7.2	7.7	8.6	13.6
Aug	3.9	3.8	7.2	7.7	8.6	13.6
Jul	3.9	3.8	7.3	7.9	8.7	13.8
Jun	4.0	3.9	7.5	8.1	9.0	14.2
May	4.1	3.9	7.5	8.0	8.8	13.8
Apr	4.1	4.1	7.6	8.0	8.9	14.0
Mar	4.1	4.0	7.5	8.0	8.9	13.8
Feb	4.1	4.1	7.7	8.2	9.2	14.3
Jan	4.2	4.3	8.0	8.5	9.4	14.5
Dec 2012	4.3	4.2	7.9	8.5	9.4	14.4
Nov	4.2	4.2	7.7	8.3	9.2	14.4
Oct	4.4	4.2	7.8	8.3	9.2	14.4
Sep	4.4	4.2	7.8	8.3	9.3	14.7
Aug	4.4	4.5	8.0	8.5	9.5	14.6
Jul	4.5	4.6	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
Jun	4.6	4.6	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
May	4.6	4.5	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.8
Apr	4.6	4.4	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.6
Mar	4.6	4.5	8.2	8.7	9.6	14.5
Feb	4.7	4.6	8.3	8.9	9.8	15.0
Jan	4.8	4.7	8.3	8.9	9.9	15.2
Dec 2011	4.9	4.9	8.5	9.0	10.0	15.2
Nov	5.0	5.0	8.6	9.3	10.1	15.5
Oct	5.1	5.1	8.8	9.4	10.3	15.8
Sep	5.4	5.2	9.0	9.6	10.5	16.3
Aug	5.4	5.2	9.0	9.6	10.5	16.1
Jul	5.3	5.3	9.0	9.6	10.6	15.9
Jun	5.3	5.3	9.1	9.7	10.7	16.1
May	5.3	5.4	9.0	9.5	10.3	15.8
Apr	5.2	5.4	9.1	9.7	10.5	16.1
Mar	5.3	5.4	9.0	9.5	10.4	15.9
Feb	5.3	5.5	9.0	9.6	10.6	16.0
Jan	5.5	5.5	9.2	9.7	10.8	16.2

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-16 provides U6 on a monthly basis from 2001 to 2015. There was a steep climb from 2007 into 2009 and then this measure of unemployment and underemployment stabilized at that high level but declined into 2012. The low of U6 SA was 8.0 percent in Mar 2007 and the peak was 17.1 percent in Apr 2010. The low NSA was 7.6 percent in Oct 2006 and the peak was 18.0 percent in Jan 2010.

Chart I-16, US, U6, total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons, Month, SA, 2001-2015

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-17 provides the number employed part-time for economic reasons or who cannot find full-time employment. There are sharp declines at the end of 2009, 2010 and 2011 but an increase in 2012 followed by relative stability in 2013-2015.

Chart I-17, US, Working Part-time for Economic Reasons

Thousands, Month SA 2001-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

ICA3 Ten Million Fewer Full-time Jobs. There is strong seasonality in US labor markets around the end of the year.

Seasonally adjusted part-time for economic reasons. The number employed part-time for economic reasons because they could not find full-time employment fell from 9.109 million in Sep 2011 to 7.808 million in Mar 2012, seasonally adjusted, or decline of 1.301 million in six months, as shown in Table I-9. The number employed part-time for economic reasons rebounded to 8.600 million in Sep 2012 for increase of 603,000 in one month from Aug to Sep 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons declined to 8.195 million in Oct 2012 or by 405,000 again in one month, further declining to 8.156 million in Nov 2012 for another major one-month decline of 39,000 and 7.926 million in Dec 2012 or fewer 230,000 in just one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 8.055 million in Jan 2013 or 129,000 more than in Dec 2012 and to 8.064 million in Feb 2013, declining to 7.947 million in May 2013 but increasing to 8.124 million in Jun 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.843 million in Aug 2013 for decline of 244,000 in one month from 8.087 million in Jul 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased 96,000 from 7.843 million in Aug 2013 to 7.939 million in Sep 2013. The number part-time for economic reasons rose to 7.982 million in Oct 2013, falling by 267,000 to 7.715 million in Nov 2013. The number part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.776 million in Dec 2013, decreasing to 7.274 million in Jan 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell from 7.274 million in Jan 2014 to 7.204 million in Feb 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.449 million in Mar 2014 and 7.460 million in Apr 2014. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.268 million in May 2014, increasing to 7.496 million in Jun 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.433 million in Jul 2014 and 7.223 million in Aug 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.058 million in Sep 2014, 7.012 million in Oct 2014 and 6.851 million in Nov 2014. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.790 million in Dec 2014, increasing to 6.810 million in Jan 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.635 million in Feb 2015, increasing to 6.705 million in Mar 2015. The level of employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.580 million in Apr 2015, increasing to 6.652 million in May 2015. The level employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.605 million in Jun 2015 and 6.325 million in Jul 2015. There is an increase of 198,000 in part-time for economic reasons from Aug 2012 to Oct 2012 and of 159,000 from Aug 2012 to Nov 2012.
Seasonally adjusted full-time. The number employed full-time increased from 112.891 million in Oct 2011 to 115.086 million in Mar 2012 or 2.195 million but then fell to 114.245 million in May 2012 or 0.841 million fewer full-time employed than in Mar 2012. The number employed full-time increased from 114.735 million in Aug 2012 to 115.514 million in Oct 2012 or increase of 0.779 million full-time jobs in two months and further to 115.807 million in Jan 2013 or increase of 1.072 million more full-time jobs in five months from Aug 2012 to Jan 2013. The number of full time jobs decreased slightly to 115.751 million in Feb 2013, increasing to 116.244 million in May 2013 and 116.143 million in Jun 2013. Then number of full-time jobs increased to 116.147 million in Jul 2013, 116.453 million in Aug 2013 and 116.869 million in Sep 2013. The number of full-time jobs fell to 116.293 million in Oct 2013 and increased to 116.946 in Nov 2013. The level of full-time jobs fell to 117.240 million in Dec 2013, increasing to 117.650 million in Jan 2014 and 117.859 million in Feb 2014. The level of employment full-time increased to 118.062 million in Mar 2014 and 118.458 million in Apr 2014. The level of full-time employment reached 118.790 million in May 2014, decreasing to 118.252 million in Jun 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 118.448 million in Jul 2014 and 118.758 million in Aug 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.310 million in Sep 2014, 119.681 million in Oct 2014 and 119.507 million in Nov 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.934 million in Dec 2014 and 120.711 million in Jan 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 120.834 million in Feb 2015 and 121.024 million in Mar 2015. The level of full-time jobs decreased to 120.772 million in Apr 2015, increasing to 121.402 million in May 2015 and decreasing to 121.053 million in Jun 2015. The level of full-time jobs increased to 121.589 million in Jul 2015. Adjustments of benchmark and seasonality-factors at the turn of every year could affect comparability of labor market indicators (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/02/job-creation-and-monetary-policy-twenty.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2014/02/financial-instability-rules.html http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2013/02/thirty-one-million-unemployed-or.html).
Not seasonally adjusted part-time for economic reasons. The number of employed part-time for economic reasons actually increased without seasonal adjustment from 8.271 million in Nov 2011 to 8.428 million in Dec 2011 or by 157,000 and then to 8.918 million in Jan 2012 or by an additional 490,000 for cumulative increase from Nov 2011 to Jan 2012 of 647,000. The level of employed part-time for economic reasons then fell from 8.918 million in Jan 2012 to 7.867 million in Mar 2012 or by 1.051 million and to 7.694 million in Apr 2012 or 1.224 million fewer relative to Jan 2012. In Aug 2012, the number employed part-time for economic reasons reached 7.842 million NSA or 148,000 more than in Apr 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons increased from 7.842 million in Aug 2012 to 8.110 million in Sep 2012 or by 3.4 percent. The number part-time for economic reasons fell from 8.110 million in Sep 2012 to 7.870 million in Oct 2012 or by 240.000 in one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons NSA increased to 8.628 million in Jan 2013 or 758,000 more than in Oct 2012. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 8.298 million in Feb 2013, which is lower by 330,000 relative to 8.628 million in Jan 2013 but higher by 428,000 relative to 7.870 million in Oct 2012. The number employed part time for economic reasons fell to 7.734 million in Mar 2013 or 564,000 fewer than in Feb 2013 and fell to 7.709 million in Apr 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons reached 7.618 million in May 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons jumped from 7.618 million in May 2013 to 8.440 million in Jun 2013 or 822,000 in one month. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 8.324 million in Jul 2013 and 7.690 million in Aug 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons NSA fell to 7.522 million in Sep 2013, increasing to 7.700 million in Oct 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.563 million in Nov 2013 and increased to 7.990 million in Dec 2013. The number employed part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.771 million in Jan 2014 and 7.397 million in Feb 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 7.455 million in Mar 2014 and fell to 7.243 million in Apr 2014. The number of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.960 million in May 2014, increasing to 7.805 million in Jun 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 7.665 million in Jul 2014 and 7.083 million in Aug 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.711 million in Sep 2014 and increased to 6.787 million in Oct 2014. The level of part-time for economic reasons reached 6.713 million in Nov 2014 and 6.970 million in Dec 2014, increasing to 7.269 million in Jan 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons fell to 6.772 million in Feb 2015 and 6.672 million in Mar 2015, falling to 6.356 million in Apr 2015. The level of part-time for economic reasons increased to 6.363 million in May 2015 and to 6.776 million in Jun 2015, decreasing to 6.511 million in Jul 2015.
Not seasonally adjusted full-time. The number employed full time without seasonal adjustment fell from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 113.050 million in Dec 2011 or by 88,000 and fell further to 111.879 in Jan 2012 for cumulative decrease of 1.259 million. The number employed full-time not seasonally adjusted fell from 113.138 million in Nov 2011 to 112.587 million in Feb 2012 or by 551.000 but increased to 116.214 million in Aug 2012 or 3.076 million more full-time jobs than in Nov 2011. The number employed full-time not seasonally adjusted decreased from 116.214 million in Aug 2012 to 115.678 million in Sep 2012 for loss of 536,000 full-time jobs and rose to 116.045 million in Oct 2012 or by 367,000 full-time jobs in one month relative to Sep 2012. The number employed full-time NSA fell from 116.045 million in Oct 2012 to 115.515 million in Nov 2012 or decline of 530.000 in one month. The number employed full-time fell from 115.515 in Nov 2012 to 115.079 million in Dec 2012 or decline by 436,000 in one month. The number employed full time fell from 115.079 million in Dec 2012 to 113.868 million in Jan 2013 or decline of 1.211 million in one month. The number of full time jobs increased to 114.191 in Feb 2012 or by 323,000 in one month and increased to 114.796 million in Mar 2013 for cumulative increase from Jan by 928,000 full-time jobs but decrease of 283,000 from Dec 2012. The number employed full time reached 117.400 million in Jun 2013 and increased to 117.688 in Jul 2013 or by 288,000. The number employed full-time reached 117.868 million in Aug 2013 for increase of 180,000 in one month relative to Jul 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 117.308 million in Sep 2013 or by 560,000. The number employed full-time fell to 116.798 million in Oct 2013 or decline of 510.000 in one month. The number employed full-time rose to 116.875 million in Nov 2013, falling to 116.661 million in Dec 2013. The number employed full-time fell to 115.744 million in Jan 2014 but increased to 116.323 million in Feb 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 116.985 in Mar 2014 and 118.073 million in Apr 2014. The number of full-time jobs increased to 119.179 million in May 2014, increasing to 119.472 million in Jun 2014. The level of full-time jobs increased to 119.900 million in Jul 2014. Comparisons over long periods require use of NSA data. The number with full-time jobs fell from a high of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to 108.777 million in Jan 2010 or by 14.442 million. The number with full-time jobs in Jun 2015 is 123.142 million, which is lower by 0.077 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007.
Loss of full-time jobs. The magnitude of the stress in US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in Jul 2007 to 250.876 million in Jul 2015 or by 18.918 million (http://www.bls.gov/data/) while in the same period the number of full-time jobs fell 0.077 million. The ratio of full-time jobs of 123.219 million Jul 2007 to civilian noninstitutional population of 231.958 million was 53.1 percent. If that ratio had remained the same, there would be 133.215 million full-time jobs with population of 250.876 million in Jul 2015 (0.531 x 250.876) or 10.073 million fewer full-time jobs relative to actual 123.142 million. There appear to be around 10 million fewer full-time jobs in the US than before the global recession while population increased around 18 million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US labor market. Long-term economic performance in the United States consisted of trend growth of GDP at 3 percent per year and of per capita GDP at 2 percent per year as measured for 1870 to 2010 by Robert E Lucas (2011May). The economy returned to trend growth after adverse events such as wars and recessions. The key characteristic of adversities such as recessions was much higher rates of growth in expansion periods that permitted the economy to recover output, income and employment losses that occurred during the contractions. Over the business cycle, the economy compensated the losses of contractions with higher growth in expansions to maintain trend growth of GDP of 3 percent and of GDP per capita of 2 percent. US economic growth has been at only 2.1 percent on average in the cyclical expansion in the 24 quarters from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2015. Boskin (2010Sep) measures that the US economy grew at 6.2 percent in the first four quarters and 4.5 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the second quarter of 1975; and at 7.7 percent in the first four quarters and 5.8 percent in the first 12 quarters after the trough in the first quarter of 1983 (Professor Michael J. Boskin, Summer of Discontent, Wall Street Journal, Sep 2, 2010 http://professional.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703882304575465462926649950.html). There are new calculations using the revision of US GDP and personal income data since 1929 by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) (http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) and the first estimate of GDP for IIQ2015 (http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp2q15_adv.pdf). The average of 7.7 percent in the first four quarters of major cyclical expansions is in contrast with the rate of growth in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010 of only 2.7 percent obtained by diving GDP of $14,745.9 billion in IIQ2010 by GDP of $14,355.6 billion in IIQ2009 {[$14,745.9/$14,355.6 -1]100 = 2.7%], or accumulating the quarter on quarter growth rates ( and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html). The expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1985 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.9 percent, 5.4 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983 (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/turbulence-of-valuations-of-financial.html and earlier http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/06/international-valuations-of-financial.html). The US maintained growth at 3.0 percent on average over entire cycles with expansions at higher rates compensating for contractions. Growth at trend in the entire cycle from IVQ2007 to IIQ2015 would have accumulated to 24.8 percent. GDP in IIQ2015 would be $18,712.5 billion (in constant dollars of 2009) if the US had grown at trend, which is higher by $2,442.1 billion than actual $16,270.4 billion. There are about two trillion dollars of GDP less than at trend, explaining the 24.7 million unemployed or underemployed equivalent to actual unemployment/underemployment of 14.8 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/08/fluctuating-risk-financial-assets.html and earlier (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html). US GDP in IIQ2015 is 13.1 percent lower than at trend. US GDP grew from $14,991.8 billion in IVQ2007 in constant dollars to $16,270.4 billion in IIQ2015 or 8.5 percent at the average annual equivalent rate of 1.1 percent. Cochrane (2014Jul2) estimates US GDP at more than 10 percent below trend. The US missed the opportunity to grow at higher rates during the expansion and it is difficult to catch up because growth rates in the final periods of expansions tend to decline. The US missed the opportunity for recovery of output and employment always afforded in the first four quarters of expansion from recessions. Zero interest rates and quantitative easing were not required or present in successful cyclical expansions and in secular economic growth at 3.0 percent per year and 2.0 percent per capita as measured by Lucas (2011May). There is cyclical uncommonly slow growth in the US instead of allegations of secular stagnation. There is similar behavior in manufacturing. There is classic research on analyzing deviations of output from trend (see for example Schumpeter 1939, Hicks 1950, Lucas 1975, Sargent and Sims 1977). The long-term trend is growth of manufacturing at average 3.2 percent per year from Jul 1919 to Jul 2015. Growth at 3.2 percent per year would raise the NSA index of manufacturing output from 107.6075 in Dec 2007 to 136.6407 in Jul 2015. The actual index NSA in Jul 2015 is 103.7999, which is 24.0 percent below trend. Manufacturing output grew at average 2.2 percent between Dec 1986 and Dec 2014. Using trend growth of 2.2 percent per year, the index would increase to 126.9147 in Jul 2015. The output of manufacturing at 103.7999 in Jul 2015 is 18.2 percent below trend under this alternative calculation.

Table I-9, US, Employed Part-time for Economic Reasons, Thousands, and Full-time, Millions

	Part-time Thousands	Full-time Millions
Seasonally Adjusted
Jul 2015	6.325	121.589
Jun 2015	6,605	121.053
May 2015	6,652	121.402
Apr 2015	6,580	120.772
Mar 2015	6,705	121.024
Feb 2015	6,635	120.834
Jan 2015	6,810	120.711
Dec 2014	6,790	119.934
Nov 2014	6,851	119.507
Oct 2014	7,012	119.681
Sep 2014	7,058	119.310
Aug 2014	7,223	118.758
Jul 2014	7,433	118.448
Jun 2014	7,496	118.252
May 2014	7,268	118.790
Apr 2014	7,460	118.458
Mar 2014	7,449	118.062
Feb 2014	7,204	117.859
Jan 2014	7,274	117.650
Dec 2013	7,776	117.240
Nov 2013	7,715	116.946
Oct 2013	7,982	116.293
Sep 2013	7,939	116.869
Aug 2013	7,843	116.453
Jul 2013	8,087	116.147
Jun 2013	8,124	116.143
May 2013	7,947	116.244
Apr 2013	7,933	116.018
Mar 2013	7,699	115.877
Feb 2013	8,064	115.751
Jan 2013	8,055	115.807
Dec 2012	7,926	115.724
Nov 2012	8,156	115.592
Oct 2012	8,195	115.514
Sep 2012	8,600	115.227
Aug 2012	7,997	114.735
Jul 2012	8,087	114.571
Jun 2012	8,098	114.764
May 2012	8,163	114.245
Apr 2012	7,915	114.365
Mar 2012	7,808	115.086
Feb 2012	8,193	114.186
Jan 2012	8,291	113.789
Dec 2011	8,174	113.740
Nov 2011	8,450	113.177
Oct 2011	8,637	112.891
Sep 2011	9,109	112.527
Aug 2011	8,781	112.715
Jul 2011	8,277	112.191
Not Seasonally Adjusted
Jul 2015	6,511	123.142
Jun 2015	6,776	122.268
May 2015	6,363	121.863
Apr 2015	6,356	120.402
Mar 2015	6,672	119.981
Feb 2015	6,772	119.313
Jan 2015	7,269	118.840
Dec 2014	6,970	119.394
Nov 2014	6,713	119.441
Oct 2014	6,787	120.176
Sep 2014	6,711	119.791
Aug 2014	7,083	120.110
Jul 2014	7,665	119.900
Jun 2014	7,805	119.472
May 2014	6,960	119.179
Apr 2014	7,243	118.073
Mar 2014	7,455	116.985
Feb 2014	7,397	116.323
Jan 2014	7,771	115.744
Dec 2013	7,990	116.661
Nov 2013	7,563	116.875
Oct 2013	7,700	116.798
Sep 2013	7,522	117.308
Aug 2013	7,690	117.868
Jul 2013	8,324	117.688
Jun 2013	8,440	117.400
May 2013	7,618	116.643
Apr 2013	7,709	115.674
Mar 2013	7,734	114.796
Feb 2013	8,298	114.191
Jan 2013	8,628	113.868
Dec 2012	8,166	115.079
Nov 2012	7,994	115.515
Oct 2012	7,870	116.045
Sep 2012	8,110	115.678
Aug 2012	7,842	116.214
Jul 2012	8,316	116.131
Jun 2012	8,394	116.024
May 2012	7,837	114.634
Apr 2012	7,694	113.999
Mar 2012	7,867	113.916
Feb 2012	8,455	112.587
Jan 2012	8,918	111.879
Dec 2011	8,428	113.050
Nov 2011	8,271	113.138
Oct 2011	8,258	113.456
Sep 2011	8,541	112.980
Aug 2011	8,604	114.286
Jul 2011	8,514	113.759
Jun 2011	8,738	113.255
May 2011	8,270	112.618
Apr 2011	8,425	111.844
Mar 2011	8,737	111.186
Feb 2011	8,749	110.731
Jan 2011	9,187	110.373
Dec 2010	9,205	111.207
Nov 2010	8,670	111.348
Oct 2010	8,408	112.342
Sep 2010	8,628	112.385
Aug 2010	8,628	113.508
Jul 2010	8,737	113.974
Jun 2010	8,867	113.856
May 2010	8,513	112.809
Apr 2010	8,921	111.391
Mar 2010	9,343	109.877
Feb 2010	9,282	109.100
Jan 2010	9,290	108.777 (low)
Dec 2009	9,354 (high)	109.875
Nov 2009	8,894	111.274
Oct 2009	8,474	111.599
Sep 2009	8,255	111.991
Aug 2009	8,835	113.863
Jul 2009	9,103	114.184
Jun 2009	9,301	114.014
May 2009	8,785	113.083
Apr 2009	8,648	112.746
Mar 2009	9,305	112.215
Feb 2009	9,170	112.947
Jan 2009	8,829	113.815
Dec 2008	8,250	116.422
Nov 2008	7,135	118.432
Oct 2008	6,267	120.020
Sep 2008	5,701	120.213
Aug 2008	5,736	121.556
Jul 2008	6,054	122.378
Jun 2008	5,697	121.845
May 2008	5,096	120.809
Apr 2008	5,071	120.027
Mar 2008	5,038	119.875
Feb 2008	5,114	119.452
Jan 2008	5,340	119.332
Dec 2007	4,750	121.042
Nov 2007	4,374	121.846
Oct 2007	4,028	122.006
Sep 2007	4,137	121.728
Aug 2007	4,494	122.870
Jul 2007	4,516	123.219 (high)
Jun 2007	4,469	122.150
May 2007	4,315	120.846
Apr 2007	4,205	119.609
Mar 2007	4,384	119.640
Feb 2007	4,417	119.041
Jan 2007	4,726	119.094
Dec 2006	4,281	120.371
Nov 2006	4,054	120.507
Oct 2006	4,010	121.199
Sep 2006	3,735 (low)	120.780
Aug 2006	4,104	121.979
Jul 2006	4,450	121.951
Jun 2006	4,456	121.070
May 2006	3,968	118.925
Apr 2006	3,787	118.559
Mar 2006	4,097	117.693
Feb 2006	4,403	116.823
Jan 2006	4,597	116.395

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

People lose their marketable job skills after prolonged unemployment and face increasing difficulty in finding another job. Chart I-18 shows the sharp rise in unemployed over 27 weeks and stabilization at an extremely high level.

Chart I-18, US, Number Unemployed for 27 Weeks or Over, Thousands SA Month 2001-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Another segment of U6 consists of people marginally attached to the labor force who continue to seek employment but less frequently on the frustration there may not be a job for them. Chart I-19 shows the sharp rise in people marginally attached to the labor force after 2007 and subsequent stabilization.

Chart I-19, US, Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, NSA Month, Thousands, 2001-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The number with full-time jobs fell from a high of 123.219 million in Jul 2007 to 108.777 million in Jan 2010 or by 14.442 million. The number with full-time jobs in Jun 2015 is 123.142 million, which is lower by 0.077 million relative to the peak of 123.219 million in Jul 2007. The magnitude of the stress in US labor markets is magnified by the increase in the civilian noninstitutional population of the United States from 231.958 million in Jul 2007 to 250.876 million in Jul 2015 or by 18.918 million (http://www.bls.gov/data/) while in the same period the number of full-time jobs fell 0.077 million. The ratio of full-time jobs of 123.219 million Jul 2007 to civilian noninstitutional population of 231.958 million was 53.1 percent. If that ratio had remained the same, there would be 133.215 million full-time jobs with population of 250.876 million in Jul 2015 (0.531 x 250.876) or 10.073 million fewer full-time jobs relative to actual 123.142 million. There appear to be around 10 million fewer full-time jobs in the US than before the global recession while population increased around 18 million. Mediocre GDP growth is the main culprit of the fractured US labor market.

Chart I-20 provides unadjusted full-time jobs in the US from 2001 to 2015 with sharp drop and incomplete recovery. There is current interest in past theories of “secular stagnation.” Alvin H. Hansen (1939, 4, 7; see Hansen 1938, 1941; for an early critique see Simons 1942) argues:

“Not until the problem of full employment of our productive resources from the long-run, secular standpoint was upon us, were we compelled to give serious consideration to those factors and forces in our economy which tend to make business recoveries weak and anaemic (sic) and which tend to prolong and deepen the course of depressions. This is the essence of secular stagnation-sick recoveries which die in their infancy and depressions which feed on them-selves and leave a hard and seemingly immovable core of unemployment. Now the rate of population growth must necessarily play an important role in determining the character of the output; in other words, the com-position of the flow of final goods. Thus a rapidly growing population will demand a much larger per capita volume of new residential building construction than will a stationary population. A stationary population with its larger proportion of old people may perhaps demand more personal services; and the composition of consumer demand will have an important influence on the quantity of capital required. The demand for housing calls for large capital outlays, while the demand for personal services can be met without making large investment expenditures. It is therefore not unlikely that a shift from a rapidly growing population to a stationary or declining one may so alter the composition of the final flow of consumption goods that the ratio of capital to output as a whole will tend to decline.”

The argument that anemic population growth causes “secular stagnation” in the US (Hansen 1938, 1939, 1941) is as misplaced currently as in the late 1930s (for early dissent see Simons 1942). This is merely another case of theory without reality with dubious policy proposals.

Inferior performance of the US economy and labor markets, during cyclical slow growth not secular stagnation, is the critical current issue of analysis and policy design.

Chart I-20, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA, 2001-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-20A provides the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States from 2001 to 2015. There is clear trend of increase of the population while the number of full-time jobs collapsed after 2008 without sufficient recovery as shown in the preceding Chart I-20.

Chart I-20A, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands, 2001-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-20B provides number of full-time jobs in the US from 1968 to 2015. There were multiple recessions followed by expansions without contraction of full-time jobs and without recovery as during the period after 2008. The problem is specific of the current cycle and not secular.

Chart I-20B, US, Full-time Employed, Thousands, NSA, 1968-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Chart I-20C provides the noninstitutional civilian population of the United States from 1968 to 2015. Population expanded at a relatively constant rate of increase with the assurance of creation of full-time jobs that has been broken since 2008.

Chart I-20C, US, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Thousands, 1968-2015

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

IA4 Theory and Reality of Secular Stagnation: Youth and Middle-Age Unemployment. Three tables support the argument that the proper comparison of the business cycle is between the recessions of the 1980s and the global recession after IVQ2007 and not as argued erroneously with the Great Depression of the 1930s. Table I-5 provides percentage change of real GDP in the United States in the 1930s, 1980s and 2000s. The recession in 1981-1982 is quite similar on its own to the 2007-2009 recession. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.4 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). Data are available for the 1930s only on a yearly basis. US GDP fell 4.7 percent in the two recessions (1) from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and (2) from III1981 to IVQ1981 to IVQ1982 and 4.2 percent cumulatively in the recession from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. It is instructive to compare the first years of the expansions in the 1980s and the current expansion. GDP grew at 4.6 percent in 1983, 7.3 percent in 1984, 4.2 percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987 and 4.2 percent in 1988. In contrast, GDP grew 2.5 percent in 2010, 1.6 percent in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2.4 percent in 2014. Actual annual equivalent GDP growth in the four quarters of 2012, and ten quarters from IQ2013 to IIQ2015 is 2.0 percent and 2.3 percent in the four quarters ending in IIQ2015. GDP grew at 4.2 percent in 1985, 3.5 percent in 1986, 3.5 percent in 1987 and 4.2 percent in 1988. The forecasts of the central tendency of participants of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are in the range of 1.8 to 2.0 percent in 2015 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20150617.pdf) with less reliable forecast of 2.4 to 2.7 percent in 2016 (http://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20150617.pdf). Growth of GDP in the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2015 has been at average 2.1 percent in annual equivalent.

Table I-5, US, Percentage Change of GDP in the 1930s, 1980s and 2000s, ∆%

Year	GDP ∆%	Year	GDP ∆%	Year	GDP ∆%
1930	-8.5	1980	-0.2	2000	4.1
1931	-6.4	1981	2.6	2001	1.0
1932	-12.9	1982	-1.9	2002	1.8
1933	-1.3	1983	4.6	2003	2.8
1934	10.8	1984	7.3	2004	3.8
1935	8.9	1985	4.2	2005	3.3
1936	12.9	1986	3.5	2006	2.7
1937	5.1	1987	3.5	2007	1.8
1938	-3.3	1988	4.2	2008	-0.3
1930	8.0	1989	3.7	2009	-2.8
1940	8.8	1990	1.9	2010	2.5
1941	17.7	1991	-0.1	2011	1.6
1942	18.9	1992	3.6	2012	2.2
1943	17.0	1993	2.7	2013	1.5
1944	8.0	1994	4.0	2014	2.4

Source: US Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Characteristics of the four cyclical contractions are provided in Table I-6 with the first column showing the number of quarters of contraction; the second column the cumulative percentage contraction; and the final column the average quarterly rate of contraction. There were two contractions from IQ1980 to IIIQ1980 and from IIIQ1981 to IVQ1982 separated by three quarters of expansion. The drop of output combining the declines in these two contractions is 4.7 percent, which is almost equal to the decline of 4.2 percent in the contraction from IVQ2007 to IIQ2009. In contrast, during the Great Depression in the four years of 1930 to 1933, GDP in constant dollars fell 26.4 percent cumulatively and fell 45.3 percent in current dollars (Pelaez and Pelaez, Financial Regulation after the Global Recession (2009a), 150-2, Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. II (2009b), 205-7 and revisions in http://bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm). The comparison of the global recession after 2007 with the Great Depression is entirely misleading.

Table I-6, US, Number of Quarters, GDP Cumulative Percentage Contraction and Average Percentage Annual Equivalent Rate in Cyclical Contractions

	Number of Quarters	Cumulative Percentage Contraction	Average Percentage Rate
IIQ1953 to IIQ1954	3	-2.4	-0.8
IIIQ1957 to IIQ1958	3	-3.0	-1.0
IVQ1973 to IQ1975	5	-3.1	-0.6
IQ1980 to IIIQ1980	2	-2.2	-1.1
IIIQ1981 to IVQ1982	4	-2.5	-0.64
IVQ2007 to IIQ2009	6	-4.2	-0.72

Sources: Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table I-7 shows the mediocre average annual equivalent growth rate of 2.1 percent of the US economy in the twenty-four quarters of the current cyclical expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2015. In sharp contrast, the average growth rate of GDP was:

5.7 percent in the first thirteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986
5.4 percent in the first fifteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1986
5.2 percent in the first sixteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1986
5.0 percent in the first seventeen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1987
5.0 percent in the first eighteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1987
4.9 percent in the first nineteen quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987
5.0 percent in the first twenty quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1987
4.9 percent in the first twenty-first quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1988
4.9 percent in the first twenty-two quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIQ1988
4.8 percent in the first twenty-three quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988
4.8 percent in the first twenty-four quarters of expansion from IQ1983 to IVQ1988

1. The line “average first four quarters in four expansions” provides the average growth rate of 7.7 percent with 7.8 percent from IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955, 9.2 percent from IIIQ1958 to IIQ1959, 6.1 percent from IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976 and 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983. The United States missed this opportunity of high growth in the initial phase of recovery. BEA data show the US economy in standstill with annual growth of 2.5 percent in 2010 decelerating to 1.6 percent annual growth in 2011, 2.2 percent in 2012, 1.5 percent in 2013 and 2.4 percent in 2014 (http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm) The expansion from IQ1983 to IQ1986 was at the average annual growth rate of 5.7 percent, 5.2 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1986, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1987, 5.0 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1987, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IQ1988, 4.9 percent from IQ1983 to IIQ1988, 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IIIQ1988. 4.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1988 and at 7.8 percent from IQ1983 to IVQ1983. GDP grew 2.7 percent in the first four quarters of the expansion from IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010. GDP growth in the four quarters of 2012, the four quarters of 2013, the four quarters of 2014 and two quarters of Q2015 accumulated to 7.1 percent. This growth is equivalent to 2.0 percent per year, obtained by dividing GDP in IIQ2015 of $16,270.4 billion by GDP in IVQ2011 of $15,190.3 billion and compounding by 4/14: {[($16,270.4/$15,190.3)^4/14 -1]100 = 2.0 percent.

Table I-7, US, Number of Quarters, Cumulative Growth and Average Annual Equivalent Growth Rate in Cyclical Expansions

	Number of Quarters	Cumulative Growth ∆%	Average Annual Equivalent Growth Rate
IIIQ 1954 to IQ1957	11	12.8	4.5
First Four Quarters IIIQ1954 to IIQ1955	4	7.8
IIQ1958 to IIQ1959	5	10.0	7.9
First Four Quarters IIIQ1958 to IIQ1959	4	9.2
IIQ1975 to IVQ1976	8	8.3	4.1
First Four Quarters IIIQ1975 to IIQ1976	4	6.1
IQ1983-IQ1986 IQ1983-IIIQ1986 IQ1983-IVQ1986 IQ1983-IQ1987 IQ1983-IIQ1987 IQ1983 to IIIQ1987 IQ1983 to IVQ1987 IQ1983 to IQ1988 IQ1983 to IIQ1988 IQ1983 to IIIQ1988 IQ1983 to IVQ1988	13 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24	19.9 21.6 22.3 23.1 24.5 25.6 27.7 28.4 30.1 30.9 32.6	5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8
First Four Quarters IQ1983 to IVQ1983	4	7.8
Average First Four Quarters in Four Expansions*		7.7
IIIQ2009 to IIQ2015	24	13.3	2.1
First Four Quarters IIIQ2009 to IIQ2010		2.7

*First Four Quarters: 7.8% IIIQ1954-IIQ1955; 9.2% IIIQ1958-IIQ1959; 6.1% IIIQ1975-IQ1976; 7.8% IQ1983-IVQ1983

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis http://www.bea.gov/iTable/index_nipa.cfm

Table EMP provides the comparison between the labor market in the current whole cycle from 2007 to 2014 and the whole cycle from 1979 to 1988. In the entire cycle from 2007 to 2014, the number employed increased 0.258 million, full-time employed fell 2.373 million, part-time for economic reasons increased 2.812 million and population increased 16.080 million. The number employed increased 0.2 percent, full-time employed fell 2.0 percent, part-time for economic reasons increased 63.9 percent and population increased 6.9 percent. There is sharp contrast with the contractions of the 1980s and with most economic history of the United States. In the whole cycle from 1979 to 1988, the number employed increased 16.144 million, full-time employed increased 12.560 million, part-time for economic reasons 1.629 million and population 19.750 million. In the entire cycle from 1979 to 1988, the number employed increased 16.3 percent, full-time employed 15.2 percent, part-time for economic reasons 45.5 percent and population 12.0 percent. The difference between the 1980s and the current cycle after 2007 is in the high rate of growth after the contraction that maintained trend growth around 3.0 percent for the entire cycle and per capital growth at 2.0 percent. The evident fact is that current weakness in labor markets originates in cyclical slow growth and not in imaginary secular stagnation.

Table EMP, US, Annual Level of Employed, Full-Time Employed, Employed Part-Time for Economic Reasons and Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Millions

	Employed	Full-Time Employed	Part Time Economic Reasons	Noninstitutional Civilian Population
2000s
2000	136.891	113.846	3.227	212.577
2001	136.933	113.573	3.715	215.092
2002	136.485	112.700	4.213	217.570
2003	137.736	113.324	4.701	221.168
2004	139.252	114.518	4.567	223.357
2005	141.730	117.016	4.350	226.082
2006	144.427	119.688	4.162	228.815
2007	146.047	121.091	4.401	231.867
2008	145.362	120.030	5.875	233.788
2009	139.877	112.634	8.913	235.801
2010	139.064	111.714	8.874	237.830
2011	139.869	112.556	8.560	239.618
2012	142.469	114.809	8.122	243.284
2013	143.929	116.314	7.935	245.679
2014	146.305	118.718	7.213	247.947
∆2007-2014	0.258	-2,373	2.812	16.080
∆% 2007-2013	0.2	-2.0	63.9	6.9
1980s
1979	98.824	82.654	3.577	164.863
1980	99.303	82.562	4.321	167.745
1981	100.397	83.243	4.768	170.130
1982	99.526	81.421	6.170	172.271
1983	100.834	82.322	6.266	174.215
1984	105.005	86.544	5.744	176.383
1985	107.150	88.534	5.590	178.206
1986	109.597	90.529	5.588	180.587
1987	112.440	92.957	5.401	182.753
1988	114.968	95.214	5.206	184.613
1989	117.342	97.369	4.894	186.393
∆1979-1988	16.144	12.560	1.629	19.750
∆% 1979-88	16.3	15.2	45.5	12.0

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The theory of secular stagnation cannot explain sudden collapse of the US economy and labor markets. There are accentuated cyclic factors for both the entire population and the young population of ages 16 to 24 years. Table Summary Total provides the total noninstitutional population (ICP) of the US, full-time employment level (FTE), employment level (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor force participation rate (CLFP), employment/population ratio (EPOP) and unemployment level (UNE). Secular stagnation would spread over long periods instead of immediately. All indicators of the labor market weakened sharply during the contraction and did not recover. Population continued to grow but all other variables collapsed and did not recover. The theory of secular stagnation departs from an aggregate production function in which output grows with the use of labor, capital and technology (see Pelaez and Pelaez, Globalization and the State, Vol. I (2008a), 11-16). Hansen (1938, 1939) finds secular stagnation in lower growth of an aging population. In the current US economy, Table Summary shows that population is dynamic while the labor market is fractured. There is key explanation in the behavior of the civilian labor force participation rate (CLFP) and the employment population ratio (EPOP) that collapsed during the global recession with inadequate recovery. Abandoning job searches are difficult to capture in labor statistics but likely explain the decline in the participation of the population in the labor force. Allowing for abandoning job searches, the total number of people unemployed or underemployed is 25.0 million or 15.1 percent of the effective labor force (http://cmpassocregulationblog.blogspot.com/2015/07/turbulence-of-financial-asset.html).

Table Summary Total, US, Total Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Full-time Employment, Employment, Civilian Labor Force, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment Population Ratio, Unemployment, NSA, Millions and Percent

	ICP	FTE	EMP	CLF	CLFP	EPOP	UNE
2006	228.8	119.7	144.4	151.4	66.2	63.1	7.0
2009	235.8	112.6	139.9	154.1	65.4	59.3	14.3
2012	243.3	114.8	142.5	155.0	63.7	58.6	12.5
2013	245.7	116.3	143.9	155.4	63.2	58.6	11.5
2014	247.9	118.7	146.3	155.9	62.9	59.0	9.6
12/07	233.2	121.0	146.3	153.7	65.9	62.8	7.4
9/09	236.3	112.0	139.1	153.6	65.0	58.9	14.5
7/15	250.9	123.1	149.7	158.5	63.2	59.7	8.8

ICP: Total Noninstitutional Civilian Population; FT: Full-time Employment Level, EMP: Total Employment Level; CLF: Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate; EPOP: Employment Population Ratio; UNE: Unemployment

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

The same situation is present in the labor market for young people in ages 16 to 24 years with data in Table Summary Youth. The youth noninstitutional civilian population (ICP) continued to increase during and after the global recession. There is the same disastrous labor market with decline for young people in employment (EMP), civilian labor force (CLF), civilian labor force participation rate (CLFP) and employment population ratio (EPOP). There are only increases for unemployment of young people (UNE) and youth unemployment rate (UNER). If aging were a factor of secular stagnation, growth of population of young people would attract a premium in remuneration in labor markets. The sad fact is that young people are also facing tough labor markets. The application of the theory of secular stagnation to the US economy and labor markets is void of reality in the form of key facts, which are best explained by accentuated cyclic factors analyzed by Lazear and Spletzer (2012JHJul22).

Table Summary Youth, US, Youth, Ages 16 to 24 Years, Noninstitutional Civilian Population, Full-time Employment, Employment, Civilian Labor Force, Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate, Employment Population Ratio, Unemployment, NSA, Millions and Percent

	ICP	EMP	CLF	CLFP	EPOP	UNE	UNER
2006	36.9	20.0	22.4	60.6	54.2	2.4	10.5
2009	37.6	17.6	21.4	56.9	46.9	3.8	17.6
2012	38.8	17.8	21.3	54.9	46.0	3.5	16.2
2013	38.8	18.1	21.4	55.0	46.5	3.3	15.5
2014	38.7	18.4	21.3	55.0	47.6	2.9	13.4
12/07	37.5	19.4	21.7	57.8	51.6	2.3	10.7
9/09	37.6	17.0	20.7	55.2	45.1	3.8	18.2
7/15	38.6	20.3	23.2	60.0	52.7	2.8	12.2

ICP: Youth Noninstitutional Civilian Population; EMP: Youth Employment Level; CLF: Youth Civilian Labor Force; CLFP: Youth Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate; EPOP: Youth Employment Population Ratio; UNE: Unemployment; UNER: Youth Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics